Houston Astros Fan
Houston Rockets Fans
Houston Texans Fan
Houston Oilers Fan Message
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BB8
Star Wars Actor & Author
“Inside Secrets of the Astrodome”
Fast on the heels of their final defeat and 30-0 ouster from the 2015 post-season NFL playoffs, The Pecan Park Eagle offers a final few words of disingenuous consolation:
1.) Hang in there, Texans. You played the Chiefs even for all of ten seconds at the start of the game.
2.) You proved today beyond the shadow of a doubt that Brian Hoyer is not your quarterback of the future. His four interceptions, his one fumble, his numerous over-thrown and under-thrown balls, and his two failures to produce points with the ball and first downs deep in the red zone all spoke to the NFL’s off-season topic in Houston over the next several months: How is Houston going to come up with a first class QB, and how much is “ASAP” even a remote time-table possibility?
3) Where do all those delusional battle-red painted, horned, and bearded Texan fans go until next August, when their next opportunities for these psychotic public displays at games of a compensatory need to make up for the absence of love, attention, passion, and color in their everyday lives is again restored to them on the stage that is NRG Stadium? – Corporate board room battles, auto sales, teaching, or even fixing pot holes don’t do it for them. In fact, no job in the world provides much of the same outlet needed for the fiery human egos of those who feel overlooked in the ordinary flow of things.
4) To Texans Coach Bill O’Brien: Next time you have to pick between (a) a QB who knows all the plays, but executes none of them very well and (b) a QB who does a pretty good job of executing the few plays he does know, and with a stronger, more accurate arm, please give some thought to the (b) option.
5) To the Texan Players: As soon as the delusion clears that the Texans could possibly have hoped to reach the Super Bowl this year by proving themselves to be the team with the best marginal record in the NFL’s worst division, the ALC South, you will all be relieved to wake up to the biggest reality in each of your lives: You are each some of the wealthiest people in America – and few of you have to go back to work for months – or ever – depending, perhaps, on how much blame you get for today’s losing fiasco, or whether or not you find out later tonight that you are the only one holding the winning ticket in tonight’s near billion dollar Power Ball Lottery.
6) As they almost always said in Brooklyn and we most often say in Houston, “Wait’ll next year!”
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Joe Montana, QB
Kansas City Chiefs, 2003
The last Kansas Chiefs NFL Playoff win? It happened here 22 years ago, on January 16, 1994, in the Astrodome, against the old version of the Tennessee Titans we used to embrace as the “Luv Ya Blue” Houston Oilers. By this time, the team originally known as the Dallas Texans had long since abandoned that allegiance to the Lone Star State in favor of a politically incorrect identity of themselves as Native Americans on the western border of Missouri and Kansas.
With Joe Montana lighting his final puff of flames as an NFL quarterback, these KC Chiefs pushed their rally buttons hard enough that day to push themselves past QB Warren Moon and the Oilers by a score of 28-20, advancing themselves to a game against the Buffalo Bills next weekend for the American Conference spot in the 1994 Super Bowl.
| 1/16/94 | 1ST Q | 2ND Q | 3RD Q | 4TH Q | FINAL | ||||
| CHIEFS | 0 | 0 | 7 | 21 | ~ | 28 | |||
| OILERS | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | ~ | 20 |
After trailing 10-0 at half time, Montana pulled out his professional Houston spoiler script in the second half, leading the Chiefs to 21 points in the 4th quarter and a come-from-behind 28-20 victory over the forever frustrated home boys. Montana had celebrated his last college game in the 1979 Cotton Bowl, bring the Notre Dame Fighting Irish back from a 34-14 deficit with 7:30 to go on a sub-zero frozen tundra for a 35-34 Irish win on the last play of the game. Now, here he was again, 15 years later, and nearing the end of his professional career, about to reprise a less dramatic, but painfully remindful comeback against Houston’s “Dukes of Delusion,” the Oilers.
Montana completed 22 of 38 passes on the day for 288 yards and 3 touchdowns. Moon of the Oilers, meanwhile, suffered 9 sacks, while Oilers 1,002 yards in 1993 season rusher Gary Brown was held in check by the KCD to 17 rushing yards on 11 carries.
The Chiefs would lose to the Bills at Buffalo the following week, missing the Super Bowl, but starting a string of 8 playoff losses. From all we now read, the current KC Chiefs are hoping that their 9th try since their last playoff win will be blessed by one more successful shot against a Houston team, and the same club the beat to start the 2015 season, the Houston Texans.
My adult son, Casey (ne Neal), “The Shaman of Superstition”, has a little different take on the significance of the number “9” in this instance. Casey says, “Since this game day is the 9th of January, that number is mostly likely simply lining up to imprint itself for the ages as KC’s 9th playoff loss n a row.” – Good thinking, son!
Come on, Texans! Beat the Chiefs and keep on winning! Even we Astros baseball fans could use a little entertainment as we spend the rest of our winter days staring out the window – awaiting glorious spring and the start of the 2016 baseball season. – And speaking of the number “9”. – We are those fans who prefer 9 innings and 9 players on the field at one time in our game.
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1.) In the first place, a baseball bench coach does not coach the bench nor the players sitting upon same.
2.) To some variable degree, the bench coach either helps the manager coach or else serves as his clandestine ventriloquist on tough decisions during the game.
3) The bench coach is there to remind the manager of his best choices for relief pitchers and pinch hitters during the game.
4) The bench coach is available for games of checkers with the manager during lengthy rain delays.
5) The bench coach is there in the bar to pull the manager out at 11:30 PM with the consistent reminder: “It’s not good to make curfew rules for the team that you don’t plan to keep yourself.”
6) The bench coach is there to assure the manager that he could take the team to more World Series wins than Casey Stengel, if he would only stay away from the booze, the track, and/or the ladies of easy acquaintance.
7) The bench coach reminds the manager to stay in touch with his wife or girl friend on lengthy road trips.
8) The bench coach sometimes becomes the manager’s “all hell breaks loose” listening catcher when the wife and girl friend find out about each other.
9) Trained psychotherapists and naturally intuitive .200 minor league player veterans are better qualified for service as bench coaches than any righteously straight-laced former Hall of Fame player ever will be. Members of the latter group simply haven’t seen enough of the things that happen to the ordinarily flawed manager to be of much help in matters of domestic discord and/or substance abuse.
10) The bench coach who sometimes ascends to managerial status invariably then will select a virtuous Hall of Fame player as his own personal bench coach.
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Dick and Laura Kirtley
Cougar Hearts Forever
at the late 2015 funeral of
Former UH Basketball Icon
Coach Guy V. Lewis
The most unforgettable people we meet in life often turn out to be the same people who never forget us over our shared lifetimes, no matter how much, or how little, we remain in constant physical contact. These are the folks who, once they do reappear, for whatever reason, never lose a step on who we each are – and what we mean to each other. When we were very young, we often called these people “pals.”
As teenagers, we may naturally as daylight even have updated our relationship status to “buddies” before finally settling on the grown up call that we are friends, in the true sense of the word, “best friends forever” – no matter where we separately go down the roads of life – and no matter how closely, or loosely, we stay in touch.
Richard “Dick” Kirtley is such a “BFF” person in my life, as is his wife Laura, whom I met a few years later, when all of us were young adults, just out of college, when she and Dick paired off as partners in life as a married couple. I even served as a groomsman in their wedding back in the summer of 1967. – How long ago and near at hand that little church ceremony down in Friendswood now seems to be. Like the old Sinatra song says, it happened “Last Night, When We Were Young.”
The demographic ties of our friendship were pretty darn strong. Dick and I both graduated from St. Thomas High School a year apart, with yours truly finishing first in 1956. I enrolled at UH – and Dick transferred to UH from Texas A&M in 1958 and soon pledged to Phi Kappa Theta, the same fraternity I had joined earlier. Dick also played offensive and defensive line for the 1959-1961 Cougar football team. Laura completed the Cougar thread. She attended UH after both Dick and I, and served as a cheerleader for the great 1966-1967 Cougar football teams of Coach Bill Yeoman and the UH basketball teams of Coach Guy Lewis and the Cougars’ first great national star, Elvin “The Big E” Hayes.
Laura has built a beautifully successful real estate business over the years and Dick is now retired from a distinguished career as a teacher, a mathematician, and corporate economist. Their two kids, Ryan and Kristen, are now grown and married, with children of their own, but all of the Kirtleys are very family-close, as is their family tail gate support for home Cougar football games. Ryan Kirtley, by the way, served as my invaluable assistant during the 1980 Mad Dog mascot performance campaign for UH football at the Astrodome.
Today is just a “BFF” look at the amazing Mr. Kirtley – and a few of the life facts that both developed him and show him today as one of the most rabid UH Cougar athletes and boosters of all time.
(1) The Bryant/Father’s Health Factors. Dick Kirtley committed to playing football for Texas A&M in 1957 because he had a burning desire to play for then Aggie Coach Bear Bryant. Dick was an Aggie long enough to get his foot through the door on that experience for a single season, but Bryant’s decision to “go home to mama” (Alabama) after the 1957 season tilted the table. That being said, no one can ever take that experience from him. The guy once played for the great Paul “Bear” Bryant.
The departure of Bryant and the decline in his father’s health led Kirtley to transfer nearer to home at UH. A general consolation for us all? Kirtley’s transfer from A&M to UH probably spared the world the presence today of an obnoxiously loyal Aggie alum and replaced him with a fiercely loyal Cougar alum.
UH 28 – Florida State 8.
1st Meeting in Houston
November 25, 1961
Game Ball: Dick Kirtley, UH
(2) Kirtley Grabs Game Ball in first UH home football game with Florida State. At the end of a a resounding 28-8 victory for the Houston Cougars over the Florida State Seminoles on November 25, 1961, Cougar lineman Dick Kirtley was jogging to the Cougars’ Rice Stadium home team clubhouse, when a referee clutching the final-whistle game ball came trudging past him.
“Want this, kid?” the ref asked? Kirtley smiled and gladly accepted the short range lateral and tucked the game ball under his own arm. When he finally reached the clubhouse, he asked UH Head Coach Hal Lahar if he wanted the ball. – Lahar, who was deep in conversation with someone else at the time, turned distractedly to Kirtley before staring briefly at the ball and then abruptly uttering, “You keep it!”
Keep the game ball, Kirtley did. And he still has it. Marked as shown in the featured photo. But it’s still Dick Kirtley’s significant Florida State first Houston home game ball, even if he did receive it sort of unceremoniously.
Ask Dick what he did on the field to merit the ’61 FSU game ball and he will tell you the honest truth: “If it was intended for me, it was because I played my butt off – on both offense and defense!” Take my word for it. – Kirtley would have been telling the truth. He only had one playing gear – and that was something akin to the cartoon motions of the Tasmanian Devil.
UH-FSU-Friends Footnote: The Cougars also won the very first meeting the previous year in Tallahassee by 7-6. Normally a tackle, Erroll “Moose” Linden, another friend, lined up as a tight end and scored the UH winning touchdown on a pass play. Moose was a giant for his era at about 6’6″ and 260 pounds and he would go on from UH in the 10th round as the 135th pick in the 1962 NFL draft to an NFL career of several years with several teams. Moose and I competed together in the 1959 UH intramural tennis doubles championship tournament. We made it all the way to the finals before losing a match we “could have, should have” won. Those were the days, my friends.
Alex Cooper, UH Lineman
2012-2015
Offensive Guard
290 Lbs.
Dick Kirtley, UH Lineman
1959-1961
Offensive/Defensive Guard
205 Lbs.
(3) Big Hurts Used to Come in Smaller Bites. The photo of current Cougar offensive lineman Alex Cooper and yesteryear Cougar all purpose lineman Dick Kirtley speaks loudly for how both the game and the players have changed in the past fifty years. Today’s players are bigger, faster, and more specialized than they ever were through the first six decades of the 2oth century. The things that haven’t changed are the fact that in sports, or life itself, the sweetest success still goes to those with the wisdom, discipline, commitment, and heart to go after what’s really essential to any success that matters in all the right ways.
Dick and Laura Kirtley are both such people. They are successes in marriage, successes in family, and successes in commitment to good causes, loyalty to friends, and with a virtually spiritual grasp of the fact that good health and “La Dolce Vita” also are important to our reasons for drawing the next deep breath. – I shall love and value them individually and together through eternity for being whom they shall always be to me – “Best Friends Forever!”
Thank you, guys, – and Go Coogs too!
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Jerry Witte, 1B, 1951 Houston Buffs
Jeff Bagwell, 1B, 2001 Houston Astros
Enron Field, Houston
August 3, 2001
As we await the 5:00 PM 2016 word today on Jeff Bagwell and the Hall of Fame, aggressive snoopers on early voting among the new BBWAA members suggest that Jeff is hovering in the “.70s” on his need for the 75% total voter approval for induction this time into the Baseball Hall of Fame this coming summer.
Five o’clock? – Or is this plan another of those nuclear secret, Price-Waterhouse protected pieces of information that gets leaked at noon by some anonymous inside source? It doesn’t matter. Even if the patience of those of us who are pulling for former great Astro Jeff Bagwell this Wednesday, January 6, 2016 are going to he holding fast to our electronic instruments of the digital-quick early truth all day. Maybe there remain a few confidential processes out there that are still safe from invasive seekers of the truth ahead of schedule.
My personal favorite Jeff Bagwell moment was not even the November 2004 banquet evening in Houston when the Texas Baseball Hall of Fame inducted both Bagwell and Biggio into the state Hall of Fame. It happened during the time I served as Executive Director and Board Chair for the Texas Baseball Hall of Fame – and that one was major in my limited first-hand contact with our two Astros-local greats. I will never forget the smiles on both their faces when I turned from the speaking podium that night to say: “Craig and Jeff, we members of the TBHOF administration thought that you guys deserved this little dress rehearsal for the big Hall that awaits both of you a few years down the road.”
Well, it didn’t turn out to be that simple, and it won’t happen now as the doubleheader induction we hoped it would be, but nothing factual has happened since 2004 to change the performance arguments for both these great stars. What’s happened is the taint that has fallen so unjustly upon almost every player who worked out, worked hard, and performed with power during the so-called steroids era in MLB. In a very real way, Jeff Bagwell has become the poster boy for what happens to anyone who has been tainted by a level of distrust by association and there’s no way to prove available to you to show that you did not do what some suspicious minds think because of the general stink of the era in which you played.
We Jeff Bagwell supporters are hoping for his HOF induction as a statement of both justice and vindication. And we shall have our answer by five o’clock today – or sooner.
That being said, my favorite Jess Bagwell moment occurred at Minute Maid Park (or whatever it was being called on that night) on Friday, August 3, 2001, a night that I had accompanied old friend and now late, great Houston Buff slugging first baseman Jerry Witte to MMP to throw out the first pitch. The occasion was scheduled to honor Jerry Witte and the Houston Buffs on the 50th anniversary of their 1951 Texas League championship.
As it turns out, the Astros arranged for Jeff Bagwell to be the catcher for Jerry Witte on that special evening in which two great slugging Houston team first baseman shared a moment together – as men who played a half century apart.
Whenever it concluded, Jeff Bagwell gave Jerry a signed ball – and Jerry gave Jeff Bagwell a signed personal bat from his own playing days.
To read more about that evening, here’s a link to the column that we much later wrote about t for The Pecan Park Eagle:
Good Luck, Jeff! We are hoping that this is the year the BBWAA gets it right. If not, we will all stay on them until they do.
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LATE NEWS ON THE VOTE
Griffey & Piazza In; Bagwell Near Misses the 75% Minimum
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With the 2015 college football season coming to a close on 1/11/2016 with the NCAA Division One Championship Game between Clemson and Alabama, 95% of my thoughts now flow almost fully unimpeded back to baseball, the Astros, and the MLB season coming up, but I did want to settle an old memory debt to the now moribund Bluebonnet Bowl that really did so much to establish long ago that the City of Houston intended to be a strong active player in the post-season college football scene from 1959 through these current times. This bowl, and the establishment of Houston as the annual winter base of the Lombardi Award to the best lineman of the year, were the earliest two feet in the door of that commitment.
I was fortunate to have seen the first two games in person, all of the UH Cougar appearances, of course, and a few of the others. They were beautifully timed to the needs of our Cougars for a venue to show their stuff to a national audience, and, win, lose, or draw, that they did. I recall the 1969 36-7 bruise the Cougars put on Auburn as a generator of feelings similar to the ones we grabbed in sweet joy in the Peach Bowl last week with the 38-24 win over Florida State.
This time, we long of tooth Coogs understand that it takes more than a one-time bombing of national awareness that “these guys are good” sentiments to earn a place at the big table. We must continue to excel – and do more.
Fortunately for UH fans, young Coach Tom Herman understands that fact as well as any of his more age-worn coaching cohorts.
Today we remember the Bluebonnet Bowl as one of those places you played to boost your school’s opportunities for post-season recognition by a national audience – and, mostly on New Years Eve, no less. “The Blue” is the father of the 2000 Houston Bowl and the grandfather of the 2008 Texas Bowl at NRG. And it is most deserving of its own place of honor in our local sports history – even if we did only get to this mention in the last week of the now passing away college football season.
Have a great sunshiny cold day in Houston, neighbors!
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A Brief History
The Bluebonnet Bowl was an annual college football bowl game played in Houston, Texas.[1] A civic group was appointed by the Houston Chamber of Commerce Athletics Committee in 1959 to organize the bowl game. It was held at Rice Stadium from 1959 through 1967, and again in 1985 and 1986. The game was played in the Astrodome from 1968 through 1984, as well in 1987. When held in the Astrodome, it was called the Astro-Bluebonnet Bowl. The proceeds from the bowl games were distributed to various Harris County charitable organizations. The game was discontinued following the 1987 season due to poor ticket sales and lack of a title sponsor.[2]
The Bluebonnet Bowl generally featured a team from Texas against an out-of-state opponent; 19 out of the 29 games involved a team from Texas. From 1980 to 1987, with the exception of 1981, a team from the Southwest Conference played against an at-large opponent.
The bluebonnet is the state flower of Texas.
Bowl games returned to Houston in 2000 with the Houston Bowl, and then the Texas Bowl since 2006.
~ Excerpt from Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bluebonnet_Bowl
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Bluebonnet Bowl Results, 1959-1987
| G# | DATE | WINNER | LOSER | |||
| 01 | 12/19/59 | CLEMSON 23 | TCU 7 | |||
| 02 | 12/17/60 | ALABAMA 3 | TEXAS 3 (TIE) | |||
| 03 | 12/16/61 | KANSAS 33 | RICE 7 | |||
| 04 | 12/22/62 | MISSOURI 14 | GEORGIA TECH 10 | |||
| 05 | 12/21/63 | BAYLOR 14 | LSU 7 | |||
| 06 | 12/19/64 | TULSA 14 | OLE MISS 7 | |||
| 07 | 12/18/65 | TENNESSEE 27 | TULSA 6 | |||
| 08 | 12/17/66 | TEXAS 19 | OLE MISS 0 | |||
| 09 | 12/23/67 | COLORADO 31 | MIAMI (FL) 21 | |||
| 10 | 12/31/68 | SMU 28 | OKLAHOMA 27 | |||
| 11 | 12/31/69 | HOUSTON 36 | AUBURN 7 | |||
| 12 | 12/31/70 | ALABAMA 24 | OKLAHOMA 24 (TIE) | |||
| 13 | 12/31/71 | COLORADO 29 | HOUSTON 17 | |||
| 14 | 12/30/72 | TENNESSEE 24 | LSU 17 | |||
| 15 | 12/29/73 | HOUSTON 47 | TULANE 7 | |||
| 16 | 12/23/74 | HOUSTON 31 | NC STATE 31 (TIE) | |||
| 17 | 12/27/75 | TEXAS 38 | COLORADO 21 | |||
| 18 | 12/31/76 | NEBRASKA 27 | TEXAS TECH 24 | |||
| 19 | 12/31/77 | USC 47 | TEXAS A&M 28 | |||
| 20 | 12/31/78 | STANFORD 25 | GEORGIA 22 | |||
| 21 | 12/31/79 | PURDUE 27 | TENNESSEE 22 | |||
| 22 | 12/31/80 | NORTH CAROLINA 16 | TEXAS 7 | |||
| 25 | 12/31/81 | MICHIGAN 33 | UCLA 14 | |||
| 26 | 12/31/82 | ARKANSAS 28 | FLORIDA 24 | |||
| 27 | 12/31/83 | OKLAHOMA ST 24 | BAYLOR 14 | |||
| 28 | 12/31/84 | WEST VIRGINIA 31 | TCU 14 | |||
| 29 | 12/31/85 | AIR FORCE 24 | TEXAS 16 | |||
| 30 | 12/31/86 | BAYLOR 21 | COLORADO 9 | |||
| 31 | 12/31/87 | TEXAS 32 | PITTSBURGH 27 |
The above table was reconstructed from data provided by http://www.databasefootball.com/College/bowls/bowlgame.htm?BowlID=9
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“C’MON, BBWAA! ~ IT’S PAST TIME YOU PULLED JEFF BAGWELL OUT OF THE SHADOWS HE DOES NOT DESERVE AND PLACE HIM INTO THE BRIGHT LIGHT OF DAY HE DESERVES AS A MEMBER OF THE HALL OF FAME!”
May 27, 1968 was a busy day for storks specializing in the delivery of future MLB slugging first basemen. You see, on that date in history, a fellow named Jeff Bagwell was born in Boston, Massachusetts as another guy named Frank Thomas was glimpsing his first light of day in Columbus, Georgia. In the early 1990s, in 1991, both would make their major league debuts as first basemen in the separate American and National leagues. Thomas would make his first appearance for the Chicago White Sox in a game played on August 2, 1990. Bagwell would break in with the only big league club of his 15-year career, the Houston Astros, on April 9, 1991.
1991 would prove to be the first full season for both Thomas or Bagwell, with Bagwell hitting .294 and 15 home runs and fielding beautifully in his first season as a first baseman. Bagwell would spend his entire 15-year career (1991-2005) with the Astros; Thomas would spend the first 16 years (1990-2005) of his MLB time with the White Sox and then finish out with 3 final seasons (2006-2008) in a mixture of service to the Oakland A’s and Toronto Blue Jays.
One final irony was the fact that the 2005 World Series finally brought the two men into direct competition against each other, but, by then, the impaired shoulder of Jeff Bagwell had forced him into limited service and retirement prior to the 2006 season and a diminished role for Thomas with Sox. Frank Thomas probably could have retired too at the same time, but the White Sox handling of their diminishing interest in the man they once called “The Big Hurt” most likely kicked the big guy in the ego hard enough to get him moved to Oakland and Toronto for some hanging around time.
When the dust cleared, and he became eligible for the Hall of Fame, Frank Thomas was whisked into Cooperstown with Biggio and other company in 2015. Now eligible for a much longer period, power twin Jeff Bagwell languishes in waiting, stained by the unfairness of “guilt by association” with the fact he had built himself up considerably during his attempts to compensate or heal naturally from the battle he eventually lost to his shoulder injury, but there were those who tainted him with their steroids suspicions in the face of his denials about ever using any HGH compounds – and no evidence provided – that he ever did.
The following simple table shows how close Frank Thomas and Jeff Bagwell were to each other on career offensive accomplishments. It doesn’t begin to scratch any of the more mind-numbing SABR approaches to analytics, nor does it even touch how good these two guys were as defensive first basemen and team leaders.
A Brief Tabular Comparison of Hall of Famer Frank Thomas
And His Ought 2B There Too Twin Super Star, Jeff Bagwell:
| Players | Games | Hits | HR | BA | SA | OBP | ASG | MVP | SS | ROY | RBI |
| Jeff Bagwell | 2150 | 2314 | 449 | .297 | .540 | .408 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1991 | 1529 |
| Frank Thomas | 2322 | 2468 | 521 | .301 | .555 | .419 | 5 | 2 | 4 | No | 1704 |
Key to Above:
HR = Home Runs
BA = Batting Averages
SA = Slugging Averages
OBP = On Base Percentages
ASG = All Star Game Appearances
MVP = Most Valuable Player Awards
SS = Silver Slugger Awards
ROY = Rookie of the Year Awards
RBI = Runs Bated In
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Come on, BBWAA, do the right thing! – Put Jeff Bagwell in the Hall of Fame Now – It’s Where He Belongs!
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FRANK THOMAS
BASEBALL HALL OF FAME
2015
Astros analyst Bill Gilbert lights the fires of the Hot Stove League season with a look at Who’s Likely to make the HOF in 2016 based on Win Shares.
Pecan Park Eagle Note: Here we go with a very timely report from Bill Gilbert on the chances of Jeff Bagwell and others reaching the Hall of Fame this year. Results of the Baseball Writers of America 2016 class vote will be anounced this coming Wednesday, January 6, 2016. Induction is only achieved by the eligible candidates who garner a minimum of 75% of the eligible writer votes.
Rating the 2016 Hall of Fame Candidates Based on Win Shares
By Bill Gilbert
One of the first items of business in baseball each year is the announcement of players elected to the Hall of Fame. This leads to lots of speculation and a little analysis prior to the announcement which is scheduled for January 6, 2016.
Many systems exist for evaluating player performance. One such system, the Win Shares method, developed by Bill James in 2002, is a complex method for evaluating players which includes all aspects of performance – offense, defense and pitching. James has stated that, “Historically, 400 Win Shares means absolute enshrinement in the Hall of Fame and 300 Win Shares makes a player more likely than not to be a Hall of Famer. However, future standards may be different. Players with 300-350 Win Shares in the past have generally gone into the Hall of Fame. In the future, they more often will not”.
The 2016 class of Hall of Fame candidates consists of 17 holdovers and 15 players eligible for the first time. Twelve holdovers have over 300 Win Shares, Barry Bonds with 661, Gary Sheffield 430, Roger Clemens 421, Tim Raines 390, Jeff Bagwell 387, Mark McGwire 342, Fred McGriff 326, Alan Trammell 318, Sammy Sosa 311, Mike Piazza 309, Larry Walker 307 and Edgar Martinez 305. Two newcomers have over 300 Win Shares, Ken Griffey Jr. 403 and Jim Edmonds 301.
In 2015, four players received the necessary 75% of the vote for election by the Baseball Writers of America (BBWAA). The 2015 ballot included 17 newcomers and 17 returning candidates. Three newcomers, Randy Johnson (97.3%), Pedro Martinez (91.1%) and John Smoltz (82.9%) were elected on the first ballot. Only two others, Gary Sheffield (11.7%) and Nomar Garciaparra (5.5%) received the necessary 5% of the votes required to remain on the ballot.
With the strong incoming class last year, only Craig Biggio (82.7%) among the holdovers was elected. The 2016 class is not as strong which should allow some holdovers to move up. The only holdovers with over 50% of the vote in 2015 were Mike Piazza (62.2%), Jeff Bagwell (55.7%) and Tim Raines (55.0%).
Several players on the ballot have the numbers to be elected but remain tainted with the steroid cloud. Many voters are likely to wait until more is known about the extent of steroid usage before giving them a pass. This, along with the number of strong newcomers on the ballot the last two years has resulted in the ballot becoming quite crowded. A total of 571 ballots were submitted last year and each voter could vote for up to 10 players. The number of ballots will be reduced this year as writers that have not actively covered the sport for the past ten years will no longer be able to vote. It will be interesting to see how this will impact the results. Over the years, voters have typically voted for 5 or 6 candidates but last year they voted for an average of 8.4. This increase is likely to continue since there are at least 20 candidates on the ballot for which a reasonable case can be made for induction.
The Hall has made a significant change in the voting for this year. Players are now kept on the ballot for 10 years rather than 15 years. Players that had already been on the ballot for 10 or more years stay on for 15 but those with less than 10 years will be removed after their 10th year. Alan Trammell is in his last year in 2016 (15th) as is Mark McGwire (10th). Lee Smith (14th) and Tim Raines (9th) are in their next to last years on the ballot.
Earlier this year, the Pre-Integration Era Committee consisting of a panel of Hall of Fame players, sportswriters and baseball executives voted on a group of ten players and executives for induction. None received 75% of the votes from the 16-member Committee.
Following is a list of Win Shares for the 32 players on the ballot. Players on the ballot for the first time are shown in bold. Voting results for 2014 and 2015 are shown for the holdovers.
| PLAYER | SHARES | 2015 VOTES | 2015% | 2014 VOTES | 2014% |
| Barry Bonds | 661 | 202 | 36.8 | 198 | 34.7 |
| Gary Sheffield | 430 | 64 | 11.7 | ||
| Roger Clemens | 421 | 206 | 37.5 | 202 | 35.4 |
| Ken Griffey, Jr. | 403 | ||||
| Tim Raines | 390 | 302 | 55.0 | 263 | 46.1 |
| Jeff Bagwell | 387 | ||||
| Mark McGwire | 342 | 55 | 10.0 | 63 | 11,0 |
| Jeff Kent | 338 | 77 | 14.0 | 87 | 15.2 |
| Fred McGriff | 326 | 118 | 20.7 | 67 | 11.7 |
| Alan Trammell | 318 | 138 | 25.1 | 119 | 20.8 |
| Sammy Sosa | 311 | 36 | 6.6 | 41 | 7.2 |
| Mike Piazza | 309 | 384 | 69.9 | 355 | 62.2 |
| Larry Walker | 307 | 65 | 11.8 | 53 | 10.2 |
| Edgar Martinez | 305 | 148 | 27.0 | 144 | 25.2 |
| Jim Edmonds | 301 | ||||
| Mike Mussina | 270 | 135 | 24.6 | 116 | 20.3 |
| Jason Kendall | 245 | ||||
| Garret Anderson | 230 | ||||
| Curt Schilling | 227 | 215 | 39.2 | 167 | 29.2 |
| Nomar Garciaparra | 219 | 30 | 5.5 | ||
| Luis Castillo | 201 | ||||
| Lee Smith | 198 | 166 | 30.2 | 171 | 29.9 |
| Troy Glaus | 189 | ||||
| Trevor Hoffman | 188 | ||||
| Mark Grudzielanek | 186 | ||||
| Mike Lowell | 185 | ||||
| Billy Wagner | 182 | ||||
| Randy Winn | 171 | ||||
| Brad Ausmus | 169 | ||||
| Mike Sweeney | 162 | ||||
| Mike Hampton | 144 | ||||
| David Eckstein | 143 |
The 26 players elected by the Baseball Writers since 2000 have averaged 356 Win Shares, a figure exceeded by six players on this year’s ballot.
Player Year Win Shares
————— —– ————-
Dave Winfield 2001 415
Kirby Puckett 2001 281
Ozzie Smith 2002 325
Gary Carter 2003 337
Eddie Murray 2003 437
Paul Molitor 2004 414
Dennis Eckersley 2004 301
Wade Boggs 2005 394
Ryne Sandberg 2005 346
Bruce Sutter 2006 168
Cal Ripken 2007 427
Tony Gwynn 2007 398
Goose Gossage 2008 223
Rickey Henderson 2009 535
Jim Rice 2009 282
Andre Dawson 2010 340
Roberto Alomar 2011 375
Bert Blyleven 2011 339
Barry Larkin 2012 347
Frank Thomas 2014 405
Greg Maddux 2014 398
Tom Glavine 2014 314
Craig Biggio 2015 411
Randy Johnson 2015 326
John Smoltz 2015 289
Pedro Martinez 2015 256
——
Average 351
Win Shares are fundamentally a quantitative measure of a player’s accomplishments. A measure of the quality of a player’s offensive performance is OPS+ which compares his OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging average) adjusted for park effects and era with the league average during his career. An OPS+ of 120 suggests that his performance is 20% better than that of a league average player. A similar approach (ERA+) can be used to compare a pitcher’s ERA against the league average during his career.
Following is a rank order of OPS+ and ERA+ for the 32 candidates on the 2016 ballot:
| PLAYER | HITTERS OBP+ | ST PITCHERS ERA+ | RELIEVERS ERA+ |
| Barry Bonds | 182 | ||
| Roger Clemens | 143 | ||
| Mark McGwire | 163 | ||
| Curt Schilling | 127 | ||
| Jeff Bagwell | 149 | ||
| Mike Mussina | 123 | ||
| Edgar Martinez | 147 | ||
| Mike Hampton | 107 | ||
| Mike Piazza | 143 | ||
| Larry Walker | 141 | ||
| Gary Sheffield | 140 | ||
| Ken Griffey, Jr. | 136 | ||
| Fred McGriff | 134 | ||
| Billy Wagner | 187 | ||
| Jim Edmonds | 132 | ||
| Trevor Hoffman | 141 | ||
| Sammy Sosa | 128 | ||
| Lee Smith | 132 | ||
| N. Garciaparra | 124 | ||
| Jeff Kent | 123 | ||
| Tim Raines | 123 | ||
| Troy Glaus | 119 | ||
| Mike Sweeney | 118 | ||
| Alan Trammell | 110 | ||
| Mike Lowell | 108 | ||
| Garret Anderson | 102 | ||
| Randy Winn | 99 | ||
| Jason Kindall | 95 | ||
| Luis Castillo | 92 | ||
| M. Grudzielanek | 90 | ||
| David Eckstein | 87 | ||
| Brad Ausmus | 75 |
The Win Shares system favors players with long productive careers like Sheffield and Raines, although it appears to under-rate pitchers, while OPS+ rewards strong offensive players who had shorter, more dominant careers like Edgar Martinez and McGwire. ERA+ favors relief pitchers since their ERAs are generally lower because they are not charged with runs scored by inherited runners.
Conclusions:
5. There will not be a groundswell of support for Randy Winn, Luis Castillo, Mark Grudzielanek, Jason Kendall, David Eckstein and Brad Ausmus, among others.
Bill Gilbert
1/2/2016
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Houston Post
January 1, 1900
News Photo Contributed by Darrell Pittman
Our Top Ten Hopes for the Houston Astros in 2016
10) Astros Shortstop Carlos Correa will continue to show us that he is who we think he is – a future Hall of Famer!
9) Astros 2nd Baseman Jose’ Altuve will continue to be who we think he is – a future Hall of Famer!
8) Astros outfielder George Springer finally will show us that he is capable of hitting .300 with a high OBP!
7) Astros starter Dallas Keuchel will continue to be undefeated at home and the force of our pitching staff!
6) Someone will arrive, via trade or personal development, to become that “3rd man ‘sure thing’ in the starting rotation!
5) The Astros will find or acquire guys capable of playing 1st and 3rd bases with good hitting for average and power stats!
4) Improved hitting for average, OBP, and steady power from outfielders Marisnick, Rasmus, Gomez and Tucker.
3) Better stick work from catcher Joel Castro – or the acquisition of a guy who can also hit and play the position.
2) Hope that burner Ken Giles shows up as the quality closer we need him to be.
1) Fewer strikeouts among our hitters, better execution of basic base running skills by all, and a little more work on basic defensive measures. Outfielders need to better understand why hitting your cut-off man on extra base hit throws is important to the prevention of opposition runners from scoring.
BONUS: This one is off the field, but it is equally important to both the history of the Astros and the City of Houston. ~ The Pecan Park Eagle hopes mightily that 2016 turns out to be the year in which a firm and appropriate plan for the preservation and re-purposing of the Astrodome finally is found, approved, and placed into developmental motion.
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Note: There were no Houston Buffaloes in 1900 as Houston and several other Texas cities took a hiatus from professional baseball for a little recovery of creative planning, everyday gumption, and a renewed cash and credit pledge of the money it would take to get this baseball cash cow business back into motion again.
The Pecan Park Eagle 