The AL West Win-Out Scenarios

The Pecan Park Eagle and his Gammie Beeville, TX, 1939 "Never Count Your Chickens Before They Hatch!"

The Pecan Park Eagle and his Gammie
Beeville, TX, 1939
“Never Count Your Chickens Before They Hatch!”

With the Astros down to 3 games at Arizona and the Rangers and Angels meeting in Arlington for 4 games to conclude their seasons, FOX SPORTS frames this zany down-to-the-wire pennant race very well. – We could end up in the AL West with a three-club tie that would require a 2-game divisional crown playoff prior to the scheduled 1-game meeting between the two AL wild cards at the home of the club with he best record:


The Angels close the season with four games at Texas. The Astros close with three games at Arizona. If the Angels win three of four in Texas, and if the Astros sweep the Diamondbacks, that would leave the Angels, Houston and Texas with the same record.

That scenario would guarantee the Angels a postseason spot because they have a better record against both Texas and Houston. Those two clubs would then play a one-game playoff on Monday with the winner advancing to play the Angels on Tuesday. The winner of THAT game would win the West, and the loser would go play the Yankees in the Wild Card game.



What happens, however, if the Astros win-out in their 3-game series in Arizona that starts tomorrow, while either the Rangers or Angels win all 4 games they have scheduled against each other, starting today, Thursday, October 1, 2015? Here’s a two-table look at that scenario.

Table One shows the final AL West standings, if the Astros win their 3 and the Rangers take their 4 against the Angels:

RANGERS   IF WIN 4   90   72   .556   ~
ASTROS   IF WIN 3   87   75   .537   3
ANGELS   IF LOSE 4   83   79   .512   7

Table One provides a clear finish for Texas. The Rangers would take the AL West division title place in the playoffs. The Astros would also clinch a wild card spot, eliminating the Twins, who already have 76 losses, but also possibly allowing Houston to slip past the Yankees for the 1st wild card position by one game, while opening the door for a possible tie for the second wild card spot between the Yankees and Twins, who could possibly wind up with tied with 86-76 records.

Table Two show the final AL West standings, if the Astros win their 3 and the Angels take their 4 against the Rangers:

ASTROS   IF WIN 3   87   75   .537   ~
ANGELS   IF WIN 4   87   75   .537   ~
RANGERS   IF LOSE 4   86   76   .531   1

Table Two results would set up a one-game playoff between the Astros and Angels for the AL West title. The game would be played at Anaheim because of the Angels’ superior head-to-head season record against the Astros. The loser would get one of the wild card spots, depending upon how the Yankees do over this final weekend. The Yankees would have to lose all four of their remaining games and the Twins would have to win all four of their last ones to set up a tie between those two clubs for the second WC spot.

General Thoughts

No matter how you slice it, it’s been an interesting season. The only thing that has saved me from disappointment this just concluded month of September is the fact of September itself. I was finally able to parlay all my seasons with the game into a memory that never left me through all those high-flying days of the summer of watching the Astros gliding along in first place in the AL West.

One thought prevailed: “The Astros still have play this well in September.”

They didn’t. And here we are. But the tempering remembrance that the season also includes the games of September did prove for me the validity of an ancient wisdom that all of us know, but often forget, and I heard it originally from my great-grandmother at her country home near Beeville so many years ago. And “Gammie”, God Bless her, was born prior to the Civil War.

Modern social observers have  spruced up the thought in these terms:

“Disappointment is the downside of expectation!”

My preference is for the way Gammie and others from her now gone generation put it:

“Never count your chickens before they hatch!”

No matter what happens now, I’m ready for October, one day at a time.


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2 Responses to “The AL West Win-Out Scenarios”

  1. Tom Hunter Says:

    Thanks, Bill. All things considered, I may end up rooting for Texas, so the Angels can’t catch the ‘Stros in the Wild Card standings.

    Will Evan Gattis play OF, so his bat will stay in the lineup against the Snakes?

  2. Says:


    You’re like a wise old owl in this year of the birds. With the Cardinals and Blue Jays having already clinched their playoff spots,
    the Eagle says you can’t count your chickens because no one is sitting in the catbird’s seat. We just have to wait to see who scratches out a spot in the final pecking order.
    I like it!


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