Bill Gilbert’s HOF Vote Report

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February 19, 2018

Bill Gilbert’s Back With a DL-Delayed, But Still Timely Report on the Hall of Fame Vote. Welcome Back, William! And Keep on – Keepin’ On, Please! We all both enjoy and treasure all you do in the name of good baseball history and analysis.

Analyzing the 2018 Hall of Fame Vote

By Bill Gilbert

Normally, I write an analysis of the Hall of Fame election within a couple of days of the announcement but a 19 day hospital stay has put me way behind schedule. The Baseball Writers Association of America elected 4 players to the Hall of Fame this year, Chipper Jones (97.2%), Vladimir Guerrero (92.9%), Jim Thome (89.8%) and Trevor Hoffman (79.9.%). They will join Alan Trammell and Jack Morris, previously elected by the Modern Era Veterans Committee, for induction in July. Jones and Thome were elected in their first year on the ballot, Guerrero in his second year and Hoffman in his third. Edgar Martinez received 70.4% of the vote and appears to be in good position for election in 2019, his 9^th year on the ballot.

Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds continue to gain a few votes but the gains were small this year. They now have 57.3% and 56.4% of the votes respectively. They have four more years on the ballot to reach the necessary 75%.

Following is a list of candidates that received votes in the election this year. A total of 422 votes were cast. For the holdovers, vote totals for last year are also shown. Newcomers on the 2018 ballot are shown in bold:

2018 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot Results

Player	Years	2018 V	2018 %	2017 V	2017 %	V Diff	%
Chipper Jones	1	410	97.2
Vlad Guerrero	2	392	92.9	317	71.7	75	21.2
Jim Thome	1	379	89.8
Trevor Hoffman	3	337	79.9	327	74.0	10	5.9
Edgar Martinez	9	297	70.4	259	58.6	38	11.8
Mike Mussina	5	268	63.5	229	51.8	39	11.7
Roger Clemens	6	242	57.3	239	54.1	3	3.2
Barry Bonds	6	238	56.4	238	53.8	0	2.6
Curt Schilling	6	216	51.2	199	45.0	17	6.2
Omar Vizquel	1	156	37.0
Larry Walker	8	144	34.1	97	21.9	47	12.2
Fred McGriff	9	98	23.2	96	21.7	2	1.5
Manny Rameriz	2	93	22.0	105	23.8	(-12)	(-1.8)
Jeff Kent	5	61	14.5	74	16.7	(-13)	(-2.2)
Gary Sheffield	4	47	11.1	59	13.3	(-12)	(-2.2)
Billy Wagner	3	47	11.1	45	10.2	2	0.9
Scott Rolen	1	43	10.2
Sammy Sosa	6	33	7.8	38	8.6	(-5)	(-0.8)
Andruw Jones	1	31	7.3
Jamie Moyer	1	10	2.4
Johann Santana	1	10	2.4
Johnny Damon	1	8	1.9
Hideki Matsui	1	4	0.9
Chris Carpenter	1	2	0.5
Kerry Wood	1	2	0.5
Livan Hernandez	1	1	0.2
Carlos Lee	1	1	0.2

Three newcomers received enough votes (5%) to remain on the ballot, Otto Vizquel (37.0%), Scott Rolen (10.2%) and Andruw Jones (7.3%). Vizquel’s strong showing on his first appearance on the ballot suggests that he will get future consideration. In something of a surprise, two-time Cy Young Award Winner, Johann Santana, received only 2.4% of the vote and will be removed from future ballots.

Eleven of the fifteen holdover candidates received a greater percentage of the votes in 2018 than in 2017. The four that didn’t were Manny Ramirez, Gary Sheffield, Sammy Sosa and Jeff Kent. The first three have been tainted by the PED issue but it’s not clear why Kent, the leading all-time home run hitter among second baseman has failed to gain support.

The following six players were on the ballot but did not receive any votes: Orlando Hudson, Aubrey Huff, Jason Isringhausen, Brad Lidge, Kevin Millwood and Carlos Zambrano.

For the fifth straight year, the writers averaged over eight votes on their ballots (8.4) versus the historical average of 6-7. If this continues, the problem of an overcrowded ballot should gradually be relieved. The change that reduced a player’s time on the ballot from 15 to 10 years will also help. The 2019 class of ballot newcomers will be another strong one including Mariano Rivera, Roy Halladay, Andy Pettitte and Lance Berkman.

Bill Gilbert

2/18/2018

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