The Pecan Park Eagle

Bill Gilbert: MLB Playoff Observations, Part 3

November 5, 2015

Astros analyst Bill Gilbert takes his third look at the recently concluded 2015 MLB League Playoffs and World Series.

MLB Playoff Observations, Part 3

By Bill Gilbert

~ Keep the line moving. The Royals had the uncanny ability in all three series to string together several hits with a mistake by their opponents to score 3-5 runs in an inning without a home run.

~ The Royals hit only 2 home runs (both solos) in their 5 game series win over the Mets.

~ Will other clubs try to copy the Royals’ style of play?

~ Will the Royals’ success result in revised thinking about the value of not striking out?

~ Tony Bennett’s voice appears to be a thing of the past.

billcgilbert@sbcglobal.net

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Pecan Park Eagle Comments

Bill Gilbert’s questions about the value of all clubs reexamining the Kansas City philosophy about putting the ball in play with fewer strikeouts makes sense for all clubs, but it will have to be only a long-term dream for those teams that already find themselves tied to expensive multi-year deals with HR crushers of the fan-and-sit-a-lot genre.

As for Tony Bennett, for mercy’s sake, we heard him too, but let’s remember – the man hit age 89 this past August 3rd! A lot of people still alive at his age can’t even get out of the house, let alone, carry a tune in a bucket. – He’s still one of the great icons of American popular song interpretation – as long as he stays with the tunes of limited middle note range– and also, to his credit and good sense, he wasn’t even trying to handle the difficult range of the Star Spangled Banner prior to Game 5, but he still had trouble with the easier range of “America the Beautiful.”

God Bless You, Tony! – You are still great when you sing “Blue Velvet” with KD Lang, “Body and Soul” with the late Amy Winehouse, or “The Lady is a Tramp” with Lady Gaga!

If proof is needed, check out those three Tony Bennett duets by listening to them at these links:

If an ad appears, just press the “skip ad” option and you go straight to what is still the most beautiful music in the world.

Blue Velvet … https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3i2F7eKoKQ

Body and Soul … https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_OFMkCeP6ok

The Lady is a Tramp … https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPAmDULCVrU

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Tags: Bill Gilbert 2015 Post-Season Report #3
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Famous Movie Lines Applied to Sports

November 4, 2015

Once Upon a Time
They Were …..
Baseball’s Children of the Night!

A friend of mine named Pat Flynn recently sent me a clip from the American Film Institute that features its version of the 100 best quotes over the first hundred years of talking movies. It’s an enjoyment unto itself and you may view it from here through the following link:

The Pecan Park Eagle thinks it also has a lot to offer as a reservoir of quotes that would easily fit right into certain active situations in sports these days, if we first, simply thought about it this morning and allowed the “right words” to find “the right sports character” to say them again in a situation that is appropriate to some current sports issue or topic. (Got it? …. Fair enough.)

We didn’t actually use the YouTube collection, per se, but we knew all of those they offered, and probably will end up here not bringing anything into the mix that isn’t there, but it could happen. We also reserve the right to modify the famous, at times, for a better fit into the situation.

OK, here we go. First comes the quote and source in bold type. Then to the sports situation it is now applied:

“Make him an offer he can’t refuse.” (“The Godfather”) ~ UH Cougar Football fans to the University of Houston regarding the future contract of Head Coach Tom Herman out there on Cullen Boulevard.
“We’re gonna need a bigger boat! (“Jaws”) ~ After hearing the above demands of UH football fans, the UH Chief Financial Officer begins his Funds-for-Herman report to the Board of Regents with the aforementioned statement.
“I want you to go to their windows and yell, ‘I’m mad as hell – and I’m not going to take it anymore!’ ” (“Network) ~ Houston Chronicle writer Jerome Solomon to Houston’s NFL Texans fans after the team drafts yet another easily injured defensive player and passes on prospects that could grow into the franchise quarterback they have never had.
“We rob banks! (“Bonnie and Clyde”) ~ The MLB Players Union succinctly reveals the philosophy that guides the demands of star players with celestial season stats for quarter million dollar, five-year contracts.
“I’m not a bad man. I’m just a bad wizard.” (“Wizard of Oz”) ~ NFL Texans GM Rick Smith tries to explain himself to the “mad as hell” fans who protest the club’s lack of success over his ten-year tenure at the helm.
“The stuff that dreams are made of.” ~ (“The Maltese Falcon”) ~ Even though they fell short this time in their pursuit of a World Series championship, Astros manager A.J. Hinch explains to his club what the 2015 season meant to him while the team is still on the road to hopefully, actually getting there.
“I’ll have what she’s having.” ~ (“When Harry Met Sally”) ~ In mixed envy and admiration for her sister’s accomplishments, tennis star Venus Williams places her breakfast order after listening to her star tennis sister Serena Williams place her own.
“Every time I play golf, I always wear a suit with two pair of pants. – That’s in case I get a hole in one.” (old W.C. Fields movie) ~ Self-effacing humor on the golf circuit becomes more common for Tiger Woods these days as he borrows the old line from Fields to show the world that – since he cannot seem to get back to what he was on the performance level – that he will try to become a little more easy-going and likable.
“I have a feeling we’re not in Kansas anymore!” – (“The Wizard of Oz”) ~“And I have feeling we’re not going back to Kansas anymore!” ~ New York Mets manager Terry Collins, after Game 5 of the 2015 World Series in New York.
“Of all the gin joints in all the world, she has to walk into mine!” ~ (“Casablanca”) ~ In reference to ex-QB Rob Mallett, Texans head coach Bill O’Brien says, “Of all the clubhouses in all of the NFL, he has to walk into mine!”)
“You talkin’ to me? – You talkin’ to me? – You talkin’ to ME? … Well, … I’m the only one here!” (“Taxi Driver”) ~ Luke Gregerson of the Houston Astros says it as his response to our question about what its like to be a part of the club’s late inning relief pitching hope.
“Here’s another fine mess you’ve gotten me into!” – (a trademark comment by Oliver Hardy to Stan Laurel in almost all of their 1930 comic movies and shorts.) ~ It is also a thought (if not a comment) in the mind of Astros closer Luke Gregerson when he takes over a 2015 late inning bad pitching situation from Chad Qualls, Will Harris, or Pat Neshek.
“There’s no place like home! – There’s no place like home! – There’s no place like home!” (“Wizard of Oz”) ~ A choral group recitation by the entire 2015 Houston Astros club.
“Listen to them! – Children of the night! – What music they make! (“Dracula”, in response to howls from the woods at midnight) ~ New York Yankees manager Casey Stengel in response to the sounds of Mickey Mantle, Billy Martin, and Whitey Ford returning to the club’s hotel about 2:30 AM on any given night in the early 1950s they played together as teammates.

Enough for now. With more time, we could go on forever. But it’s probably just as well we do not test attentions spans any further.

Have a nice day, Everybody!

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Tags: movie lines/fixed to sports
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Duke Duped By Miami “Moon”

November 3, 2015

On the 4th of 8 laterals that gave Miami a 30-27 last play kick off return TD against ranked Duke, the runner was down before he released the ball, but the bold as daylight fact was missed by the refs, even with the help of replay. Unfairly or not, Miami won the game, 30-27.

On the 4th of 8 laterals that gave Miami U. a last play kick off return TD against ranked Duke last Saturday, the runner was down before he released the ball, but that bold as daylight fact was missed by the refs, even with replay help. Miami “won” the game, 30-27, and there will be no outcome reversal.

With about seven seconds to go in last Saturday’s home game on the Duke campus, the Blue Devils scored to take a 27-24 lead in what appeared to be a win over the University of Miami Hurricanes that would preserve their national ranking once they ran out the clock on the ensuing kickoff by containing a last play miracle.

Didn’t happen. Miracles do. But so does egregious human error.

Miami managed to pull off an eight lateral delay of defeat on the deep kick off that eventually resulted in one of their speedier guys, with blockers, getting away down the left sideline and going all the way for a 30-27 last play shocking win by the Hurricanes. In the 49 seconds of actual time it took to both execute the play and justice, Miami had made college football look more like a run-out-the-clock basketball game of keep-away by a team playing for the last shot. And indeed it was Miami that got the last “nothing-but-net” shot as Duke’s only harvest was the loss of the game and their national ranking.

A video replay assessment of nine minutes duration put a temporary choke hold on Miami ecstasy, but, when the decision came in from the two referees who reviewed the “tape” (or digitally recorded moving in high definition clarity picture, if you prefer) the now cliche words hit the Duke people and their fans like thousands of simultaneous bee stings: “The ruling on the field stands. Touchdown Miami. Game Over.”

How this ruling remained unaffected by the still shot featured here in the eyes of the referees is beyond many of us, but that’s the way it played out. We could talk all day about the possibilities of human error: the restrictive perception factor which keeps some people from ever reversing their first opinions; and the unconscious and conscious effect of bias possibility – and it still wouldn’t change anything from the way the rules currently work in most sports.

The referees who called the game each have been suspended for two games as a result of their “miss” on this picture and other arguable examples, but there is no recourse for Duke getting the outcome reversed or their ranking restored. Miami gets to keep the win, perhaps as some consolation for the fact that a week earlier, they had lost a game by 58-0 for their worst defeat in history. That one also got their head coach fired.

As for Duke? Duke gets that long perpendicular to the ground tunnel that remains when a tall building manager removes an elevator for maintenance or repair.

Our full sympathy and commiseration goes out to Tal Smith, one of the finest people to ever graduate from Duke University. Tal, we know you may have seen it all on both sides of the agony and ecstasy continuum, especially in baseball, but that kind of thing that happened to Duke last weekend is something we are hoping to never see again. It even cheapens the victory for the judgment-anointed winner.

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Tags: Miami@Duke 2015 game
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Terry Collins on Broadway with “Harvey”

November 2, 2015

Preface. In 1944, a profoundly funny play called “Harvey” by Mary Chase became a major hit on Broadway. Most of us who do remember it, however, caught the laughter hops it produced from the 1950 black and white movie version, starring Jimmy Stewart. In greatly over-simplified terms, it’s the story of an eccentric middle aged man named Elwood P. Dowd who lives with his two older sisters. Dowd spends his time walking around town meeting strangers, handing each of them his card, and inviting them to dinner. He also does not fail to miss many bars along the way of his daily social jaunts. – The sisters are growing more embarrassed and frightened by the day from their brother’s behavior, especially since the time that Elwood brought home his bosom buddy, Harvey, who also happens to be a Randy Johnson height white rabbit that no one else can see. – See the movie for more. – The memory of that earlier Harvey simply forced the muses to throw a question at me as I awakened this morning. – “What about Mets manager Terry Collins’s experience with another big guy named “Harvey” in Game Five and the ninth inning managerial meltdown? Bearing in mind the need to do some integration of the movie/play and World Series plots, here’s the CliffsNotes version of how it may be playing out today – when Terry Collins and his own BFF version of Harvey drop into a Broadway bar to talk over what happened last night – and they run into a newsman with questions of his own:

Scene: Broadway Dive Bar, 2662 Broadway, New York, NY 10025; Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2015, 1:19 PM EST. Mets Manager Terry Collins and Mets Pitcher Matt Harvey quietly file into the bar and slip into a booth that appears to offer privacy and good talking space. As they order a couple of beers, they are getting ready for an elbows on the table, eyeball-to-eyeball discussion of Harvey’s winning pressure on Collins last night to stay in the game in the 9th, rather than yield to Mets closer JeurysFamilia, and their slightly different disappointment over the results. – Before they even get started, another man quickly and quietly hustles all the way across the saloon to introduce himself. He want to join them “for a moment”, but when neither budge, he simply pulls a chair loose from the nearest table and seats himself at the entry head of the booth in a way that says “I’m butting in here, whether you want me or not. Harvey’s face reddens and his right hand seems to be forming a fist. Collins senses Harvey’s building ire and counters by smiling broadly to the man as his right hand also reaches out to calm Harvey with an “easy does it” touch upon his left wrist. The intruder’s name is Charlie Willis, an AP sports assignment writer. Willis had stopped in the Broadway Dive for a “nooner” before grabbing a cab to JFK. He was still babbling from the enjoyment of his own good luck and the adrenaline it had produced when Collins brought discussion to a head. We’ll cover the rest of the story in dialogue exchange:

COLLINS: “Look, Charlie, Matt and I have things to discuss. Let’s go for A quick rap here. What do you want?”

WILLIS: “Not much. And everything. – I’m wanting to know today what America wants to know: We really get why you let Harvey here talk you into not going with Familia in the 9th. He had been the ‘Dark Knight’ for eight strong innings and had earned the right to give it a go – and yeah – we could see from the TV dugout shouts that he was telling you that he was NOT coming out. – Man alive, Terry! – No foul! No fault! – You went along with him! – And why not? Harvey had pitched his heart out! And Familia already had blown two saves in the World Series. What a bummer that would have been – had you pulled Harvey after eight – and then Familia went out there and did sooner what he end up doing anyway – blown his third save!

COLLINS: “Have one of my cards, Charlie. Perhaps, you can come to dinner at my house some soon – when we can talk about this some more.”

WILLIS (noting the growing face of anger in Harvey): “How come he doesn’t talk, Terry? He talked pretty loud in the Mets dugout in the eighth about staying in the game.”

COLLINS: “Harvey does most of his talking with his arm, Charlie. – When he starts talking in loud words, you better listen. – Cause then he goes from there to talking with his fists. – But, you’re not going do that today, are you, friend? – (Harvey shakes his head ‘no’.) – Oh, by the way, Charlie, you never took my card. – Take it. I have plenty more. I could even give you a few extras, if you think you might want to give them to your friends and family too.”

WILLIS (silently taking a handful of cards as he braces to ask his central question): “I’ll get out of your hair, Terry, but please allow me to ask the question that even Harold Reynolds couldn’t answer last night on FOX. …”

COLLINS (smiling agreeably): “You actually know Harold Reynolds, Charlie? – I’m impressed! Please take him one of my cards – and one for Joe Buck too!”

WILLIS: “Sure thing, Terry. – Uh … where was I? Oh yes … my main question – and Harold Reynold’s main question too – Once you did run Harvey here back out there in the 9th – and he walked Lorenzo Cain – WHY did you not take him out THEN? – You didn’t. You left him in there to give up that run scoring double over the left fielder’s head to dangerous hitter Eric Hosmer – who then turned out to be the guy that tied the game with that gutsy run home from third after Wright made the play to first. Look! – We all know its a “What If” now, but, had you pulled Harvey after the walk to Cain, Familia might have been able to even force a double play – as the Mets go on to win, 2-0, and are in Kansas City by now, getting ready for Game 6 tomorrow – and you are not stuck here in a Manhattan bar talking with a guy like me.”

COLLINS (smiling broadly, speaking calmly): “Here’s my explanation, Charlie, and that’s all I’m going to say. When I stop talking for ten seconds, that’s when I want you to just get up and walk out of here. – Fair enough?”

WILLIS: “Fair Enough!”

COLLINS: “Years ago my mother used to say to me, she’d say, “In this world, Terrence, you must be” — she always called me Terrence — “In this world, Terrence, you must be – oh so smart – or oh so pleasant.” Well, for years I was smart. – Then I really got smart and started being more and more pleasant.

Aside from the fact that everyone who still saw me as smart is now gone as a result of last night, I recommend pleasant over smart. It’s a much calmer state of mind. And you may quote me.”

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Tags: The Mets Version of the Harvey Movie
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Exploring the K/AB Stat and Its Value

October 31, 2015

Greg Lucas
One of those baseball experts who understands that you have to ask the right questions to get the right answers.

MLB batters have been striking out more often per season ever since Babe Ruth, the lively ball, reachable outfield fences, and the roar of the crowd at the turnstiles taught the owners back in the 1920’s that baseball fans like to have their adrenaline glands pumped to empty during some dramatic point at the old ball game.

Now, in 2015, some of us are asking more often: “Do we really want to pay good money (And what money isn’t good, Mr. Capone?) to watch more and more guys who seem only capable of either crushing the ball out of the ballpark once in a while as they increasingly take their place on the bench more often by the strikeout route 30 to 4o percent of the time without ever putting the ball in play?

The dead ball era hitting philosophy was “get your bat on the ball and put it in play.” Any batted ball has a chance of becoming the hitter’s ticket to first by obvious placement of its landing in the field, human error, or ground, weather, and light of day or night factors. A called or swinging strike three simply sends the batter back to the dugout with nothing. In a play on the wisdom of dead ball hitting master, Wee Willie Keeler, it must be said: “You can’t hit ’em where they ain’t if you don’t hit ’em at all!”

As the Kansas City Royals showed the Houston Astros in the top of the 8th in Game 4 of their ALDS rally win, several balls put in play in succession can produce enough hits and a lucky break tough error that will rescue your club from a 4-run deficit and deliver a win that leads to a series victory to a pennant to a World Series that they this morning lead, two games to one.

Greg Lucas inspired this column when he wrote the following comment to the column we titled as “The Not So Magnificent Seven Astros” with a focus on the club’s 2015 players who each struck out 100 times or more during the 2015 season. Our most general question was: How many of these guys do we want back? Most of them hit home runs pretty well, but all but one had terrible batting averages – and, as we tried to show with our K/AB percentage averaging, very high strike out (K) averages based upon the number of times each struck out, divided by the same number of official times at bat we use to calculate “batting averages (BA)” for the season.

I simply figured that if our ancient romance with a player’s “BA” could tell us that “.200” is the land of the miserable mendozas of swat, that “.300” is the gate to great hitting, and that “.400” is the portal to the gods with golden batting eyes, that a strike out average per times at bat might tell us something too.

The following comment by Greg Lucas brought into focus a better way to examine the value of the “KA” as a measure of value to productive offensive assessment:

“I like this story and wonder what an acceptable level for a K avg. would be. Gattis at .210 might be acceptable and even Valbuena’s .244 is not awful. Would a number equal to an acceptable batting average be the guideline–as too high. Interesting to compare with some good hitters who also K a lot.” – Greg Lucas, commenting on the column titled as “The Not So Magnificent Seven Astros”

The Not So Magnificent Seven Astros

Stirred by Greg Lucas’s suggestions, I decided this morning to do a “KA” check on the 2015 MLB Season’s Top Ten Hitters to see what we might develop as an initial crude reading on what an acceptable KA might be for the best hitters for average this season. Here’s what I found by base data search and KA calculation for each (KA = # of strikeouts, divided by official times at bat , same as the route we take in figuring a player’s “BA”.)

You may see that data for the seven free swinging Astros at the other column link. The data for the Ten Best 2015 MLB Hitters for Average is easy to read in the following table:

#	Name	AL/NL	At Bat	Hits	HR	K	BA	KA
1	Miguel Cabrera	AL	429	145	18	77	.338	.180
2	Dee Gordon	NL	615	205	4	91	.333	.148
3	Bryce Harper	NL	521	172	42	131	.330	.251
4	P. Goldschmidt	NL	567	182	33	151	.321	.266
5	Xander Bogaerts	AL	613	196	7	101	.320	.165
6	Buster Posey	NL	557	177	19	52	.319	.093
7	A.J. Pollock	NL	609	192	20	89	.315	.146
8	Yunel Escobar	NL	535	168	9	70	.314	.131
9	Joey Votto	NL	545	171	29	135	.314	.248
10	Jose Altuve	AL	638	200	15	67	.313	.105

To me, the general conclusions from above are these:

The best hitters for average with low HR totals will post KA figures below .200.
The amazing Buster Posey posted a .319 A with 19 HR and an incredible KA of only .093
Paul Goldschmidt marked the highest KA of .266 among the best hitter group, even though he struck out 151 times.
A KA of .300 or higher in the inverse value world of strikeout assessment to value of hitters is counterproductive to the goal of winning.
The higher the KA goes in its approach to the inversely valued .400 mark, the more it says that the player has no real place in the big leagues because it is saying, loud and clear that – 40% of the time, this player isn’t even putting the ball in play as a possible hit or luck factor factor help to his club.

That’s what we see, but what do you think? Should baseball pay more attention to the relativity of player’s KA to his value to the end of winning? Or should we just relax in the glowing wonder of how far the balls go when he finally does hit one – in spite of the fact that he seems to be climbing toward the possibility of sitting down as an out nearly half the time he comes to bat?

Addendum, 11/01/15.

An excellent first reader comment from Mike McCroskey yesterday hastens me to add his words and my reply to the body of this column on my reason for limiting the “KA” exploration to official times at bat:

Mike McCroskey Comment: I should think total at bats including walks and HBP would make a more accurate K per plate appearance statistic. For example Cabrera had a total of 80 walks and HBP’s; and Goldschmidt had 120, which would lower his average K per plate appearance quite a bit. Haven’t looked up Posey’s totals yet, but his would be even more impressi

Pecan Park Eagle Response: Mike – You are right. Measuring the K that way would give us a more accurate stat of it per plate appearance, but I was trying to focus on it in the same two-variable way we compute the BA. – (How many times in his official times at bat does a man get a hit? – How many times in his official times at bat does he strike out? – And how do they inversely compare?)This is about how often the K prevents a batter from putting the ball in play? – And not about how the K effects a player’s OBP by the way the pitcher throws to him?
Although, I will concede – the effect of a KA on a higher or lower OBP looks like worthy data too.
I might add this morning that the McCroskey suggestion would also give us a better picture of how much a batter’s record as a slugger or HR hitter draws more or less walks as a result. Keeping in mind all the while that a big factor in drawing walks is not up to the pitcher’s control or intent. Some batters, for better and worse, simply don’t seem to let walks happen. On the “better” side, the low walk ratio will include some of the best contact hitters who can get their bats on almost anything thrown at them, putting balls in play for hits and outs with error possibility instead of the walk. On the “worse” side, are all those guys, sluggers and all, who simply cannot resist swinging at bad pitches and missing, even if it costs them a walk and a trip to first base.

The McCroskey suggestion is not a better one than the KA formula, or vice versa. They are simply different suggestions. Our “KA” is about how much the “K” affects a batter’s failure rate at putting the ball in play. McCroskey’s suggestions goes to a ratio look at how much the “K” affects a player’s on base percentage.

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Tags: Does the strikeout average have value?
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Pleasant Dreams On Halloween

October 31, 2015

Pleasant dreams on Halloween. And, whatever you do, don’t think of the 2013 season while you are falling asleep. Freddy Krueger may be listening and bring your nightmare back to life as a reality, with the help of Michael Meyers using his long sharp knife to cut off all possible avenues of escape.

Coming off an exciting return to MLB as a competitive club this season has been a big plus for the City of Houston and Houston Astros fans everywhere. It has been an affirmation that GM Jeff Luhnow’s plan is really working – and it even has landed on the predicted and often mentioned timeline of 2015 as the date we could expect to see progress. And we even got see progress beyond anyone’s wildest dreams as the Astros simply didn’t stop at returning to the winning side of the schedule. They jumped out to take first place in the AL West, holding it most of the year until a September decline left them grabbing the second wild card spot and rallied to advance into the ALDS round against the Kansas City Royals.

The Astros came up a dominant relief arm short in the top of the 8th of Game 4, losing a 4-run lead that could have elevated them that same day to the ALCS and – who knows what, from there? They might have taken the AL pennant and be playing the New York Mets in the World Series right now, but as we either know by now, or should, the clock doesn’t wind on what might have been. Things are what they are, and we may as well settle for the blessing that progress – substantial progress – was made this season in the gritty, grinding everyday business of the Astros returning to the highest competitive level in baseball without soaking the payroll with fat cat talents who never – or rarely – seem ready to live up to the performance level of what we now expect of them as gazillionaires. They just seem to take the money and coast – or to become regulars at big events featuring the wide spectrum of culturally anointed ones who ride the clouds above those of us who make up the Hoi Pal Loi realm of everyday life.

Thanks for sparing us the weight of that elevated perspective, so far, Mr. Crane. Let’s just hope that our new success doesn’t evolve into a baseball world remake of “Who Wants to be a Millionaire?” – There would be no suspense. We all know that we need the better talents to become handsome millionaires for the Astros to finally return to the World Series and win the thing – but we, the fans, nor can you, afford to underwrite a baseball battalion of billionaires.

Hope you do the best for us Astros fans as possible without crossing the unmarked Rubicon that leads us beyond the Land Of Common Sense. If that should happen again, this time in Houston, maybe it’s time for our American culture to finally re-examine the role that all professional and highly competitive collegiate sports have come to play in our lives. If we cannot afford the price, and only the biggest of spenders have a reasonable shot at winning in any given competitive sport, why are we spending all this money, time, and energy watching talented super rich athletes “win for us.” We may be trying to fill a hole inside ourselves that cannot be filled by others – no matter how much damn money we pay them to “win one for the Gipper.”

Here’s my hope and belief.

As long as there are baseball players like Jimmy Wynn, Jerry Witte, Larry Miggins, Larry Dierker, Frank Mancuso, Solly Hemus, Craig Biggio, Derek Jeter, Yogi Berra, George Brett, Red Munger, Jim Basso, Roy Sievers, Don Lenhardt, J.W. Porter, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Stan Musial, Ned Garver, Deacon Jones, and Gary Gaetti, just to name a few; and for as long as there are baseball people like Gene Elston, Bob Brown, Tal Smith, Bill Gilbert, Greg Lucas, Bob Dorrill, Mickey Herskowitz, Marie Mahoney, Sam Quintero, Bill Borst, Fred Heger, Bud Kane, Erv Fischer, Allen Russell, Paula Homan, Tom Keefe, Red Hayworth, Ira Liebman, Darrell Pittman, Marsha Franty, Peggy Dorrill, Bob Hulsey, Rick Bush, Tom Hunter, and the late Arthur Richman, also only naming some, I will happily follow baseball. These are the kinds of people who keep the spirit of baseball within me what it was when it filled every pour in my body and soul, acting as the visceral fountain of joy during my childhood sandlot days in the Houston east end neighborhood of Pecan Park.

Trick or Treat, Baseball Fans! – Spring will be here before we all know it!

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Tags: a basball fan's Halloween thoughts
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The Not So Magnificent Seven Astros

October 30, 2015

The following chart shows only the seven Houston Astros who struck out at least 100 times during the 2015 regular season. All but one of the tabular charted categories should be familiar to all. The “KA” column was added to reflect the percentage of times a player struck out over the season during his total official times at bat – and does not include “ball-in-play” credit he deserves to receive with more time to add that data from the sacrifice fly list. What we have here is enough to make the point in this column with data that we all mostly know in our gut from watching the team this year.

We don’t have enough guys in the everyday lineup who are capable of putting the ball in play without striking out too much of the time. We all know that’s what beat the Astros in the top of the 8th of Game 4 in the ALDS. The KC Royals put the ball in play against a pitching staff with no great skill at preventing a flood of good contact hitters.

Bottom Line: If a club strikes out a lot, they are not putting the ball in play often enough to get more hits and chances for hits, defensive player errors, lucky bounces and glove skims, or mistaken positioning on the field. Such a “hit or miss and sit” club will also not reap the benefits of lucky bounces or other advantages available courtesy of physical laws governing mass, energy, movement, and speed.

Here are the seven members of the 2016 Houston Astros’ “hit or miss and sit” club:

The Seven 100 Plus “K” Players: 2015 Houston Astros

#	Name	K	KA	AB	H	BA	HR
1	Colby Rasmus	154	.357	432	103	.238	25
2	Chris Carter	151	.386	391	78	.199	24
3	Evan Gattis	119	.210	566	139	.246	27
4	Jason Castro	115	.341	337	71	.211	11
5	George Springer	109	.281	388	107	.276	16
6	Luis Valbuena	106	.244	434	97	.224	25
7	Jake Marisnick	105	.310	339	80	.236	9

Chris Carter compiled a club-leading “KA” of .386. – Think about that. – It says he came close to “not putting the ball in play” almost 40% of the time he was charged with an official time at bat in 2015. – Are the 24 home runs that Carter hit worth the time he spent in the lineup as either a first baseman – or an occasional designated hitter – while also batting only .199?

Who do the 2016 Astros keep from this group? Except for the tremendously talented, youthful upside prospects for future production and the current contract cost control that comes with George Springer, and as much as I do like Colby Rasmus and Jake Marisnick for their defensive skills and outfield position flexibility, and Evan Gattis for his RBI threat and lower KA of .210, none of these other guys help as with the need for more contact hitters who get on base more often – nor do they fill the need for 1st and 3rd basemen in 2016 who are closer in quality to the guys we have in the middle infield spots.

Another problem – Dallas Keuchel says he would love to team with Jason Castro as his battery mate for many successful years to come. That’s great, but at what cost will that be to the basic dead spot that Castro is proving to be in the Astros daily lineup?

Luis Valbuena is a good fielding streaky home run hitter with a .224 batting average, but, at .244, he bears the second best KA among the seven members of today’s club of seven. His batting average is far too low for either a contending club’s corner infielder spots and the team also loses base runners and scoring opportunities during the non-hitting phases of his streaks.

What do you think? And please let us hear from you in the comment section.

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Tags: hit or miss and sit members of the 2015 Houstn Astros baseball club.
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Bill Gilbert: Astros Complete Surprising Season

October 29, 2015

Baseball Analyst Bill Gilbert's Final Look at the 2015 Season of the Houston Astros.

Baseball Analyst Bill Gilbert’s Complete Look at the 2015 Season of the Houston Astros.

Astros Complete Surprising Season

By Bill Gilbert

The Houston Astros were expected to make a modest improvement in 2015 over their 70-92 record in 2014. Did anyone expect them to still be playing on October 14 and to be playing after the St. Louis Cardinals and New York Yankees had been eliminated and sent home? Would anyone have guessed that they would win more games than the Washington Nationals who were picked by some to win 100 or more games? The end wasn’t pretty but it didn’t seriously detract from a successful season.

Getting to the top in Major League baseball is tough, especially from the depths the Astros reached in the forgettable 2011-2013 seasons. It can be viewed as a seven step process and the Astros took several steps in 2015.

Step 1 – Field a competitive team. CHECK. 139 days on top of the American League West Division.

Step 2 – Turn in a winning record. CHECK. 86-76 record in 2015.

Step 3 – Claim a Wild Card berth in the playoffs. CHECK. One game ahead of Los Angeles Angels.

Step 4 – Win the Wild Card play-in game. CHECK. 3-0 vs. Yankees.

Step 5 – Win a Division Series. Wait till next year.

Step 6 – Win a League Championship Series. See Step 5.

Step 7 – Win the World Series. See Step 5.

The Astros improvement in 2015 was due to several factors. In 2014, the Astros performance was below average in virtually every significant category. However, in 2015, the Astros were above average in most categories due to:

The further development of young players like George Springer, Lance McCullers, Vince Velasquez and Preston Tucker and especially the arrival of potential superstar, Carlos Correa,
The off-season acquisition of veterans Evan Gattis, Colby Rasmus and Luis Valbuena (each reaching the 25 home run mark), and
Most significantly, a major improvement in the bullpen.

Here are the numbers:

ASTROS HITTING	2014	2015
Batting Average	.242	.250
OBP	.309	.315
SLG	.383	.437
OPS	.692	.752
Runs/Game	3.88	4.50
Home Runs	163	230
Stolen Bases	122	121
Strikeouts	1,442	1,392

Hitting Chart Comments by Bill Gilbert:

Batting Average: Better, but below MLB average of .254.

OBP: Better, but below MLB average of .317.

SLG: Big jump to #2 in MLB. MLB 2015 average was .405.

OPS: MLB average was .721. Houston #2 in 2015.

Runs/Game: Big improvement. Houston #6 in 2015.

Home Runs: In 2015, only Toronto hit more (232).

Stolen Bases: Houston #3 in BLB; #1 in AL in 2015.

Strikeouts: Better in 2015, but still too high.

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ASTROS PITCHING	2014	2015
ERA	4.11	3.57
WHIP	1.34	1.20
Runs/Game	4.46	3.81
Starters ERA	3.82	3.71
Relievers ERA	4.80	3.27

Pitching Chart Comments by Bill Gilbert:

ERA: 6^th in2015 MLB vs. 25^th in 2014.

WHIP: 5^th in 2015 MLB vs. 25^th in 2014.

Runs/Game: 6^th in MLB vs. 24^th in 2014.

Starters ERA: Ranked 8^th in 2015 MLB.

Relievers ERA: Big key to tam’s success.

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Gilbert Comment on Defense: The Defensive Runs Saved Above Average was much improved ascending from “-15” in 2004 to “+38”, and a MLB rank of #3 in 2005.

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General Conclusions

The Astros in 2015 ranked among the MLB leaders in power, speed, pitching and defense, suggesting that their rise was not a fluke and may be sustainable. Unfortunately, the strong performance was not continued in September when the pitching, especially the bullpen collapsed, allowing 4.88 runs per game compared to the full season average of 3.57. The offense in September was even stronger than the full season average with 4.78 runs per game vs. 4.50. The result was an 11-16 record for the month, the only losing month of the season. This, combined with the 18-10 record by the Texas Rangers in September resulted in the Astros finishing two games behind the Rangers after leading the AL West Division for the first five months. However, the Astros recovered to win six of their final eight games to claim the second wild card.

The Astros compiled some noteworthy individual accomplishments in 2015. Jose Altuve collected 200 hits for the second straight year and again led the AL in stolen bases with 38 while batting .313 with an on-base percentage (OBP) of .353. Springer led the team in OBP with .367 and Correa led in slugging average with .512 and in on-base plus slugging (OPS) with .857 and is a leading candidate for AL Rookie of the Year. Five players hit over 20 home runs, led by Evan Gattis with 27 who also led in RBIs with 88. Eleven players hit over 10 home runs, tying a major league record. Chris Carter struggled at the plate through the first five months before coming up with some key hits in September but still lost his season-long battle with the Mendoza Line (.199).

On the pitching side, Dallas Keuchel had an outstanding year (20-8, 2.48 ERA with 216 strikeouts) and is a strong candidate to win the AL Cy Young Award. Collin McHugh followed up his strong 2014 season with 19 wins in 2015. Luke Gregerson recorded 31 saves in his first year as a closer and relievers, Will Harris (1.90) and Tony Sipp (1.99), compiled ERAs under 2.00.

Another factor that bodes well for the future is the strength of the minor league system. The Astros’ seven top minor league teams all had winning records and made the playoffs in their leagues. Triple-A Fresno won the Pacific Coast League championship and also won a one-game playoff against the champion from the Triple-A International League. Four minor leaguers were promoted to the majors during the 2015 season and made positive impacts and six others were traded to upgrade the major league team. The Astros had a strong draft in 2015, selecting three players considered by many to be among the top ten players available.

The Astros still have some holes to fill. They need a hard-throwing relief pitcher that can get strikeouts in key situations. They need a further upgrade in on-base skills and to cut down on rally-killing strikeouts. The back end of the starting rotation could also be improved.

The success achieved in 2015 is not guaranteed to continue in 2016. Many major league teams have enjoyed a surge like the Astros only to fall back the following year. After starting the 2015 season 17-8, the Astros were a mediocre 69-68 the rest of the way. However, with youth on their side, there should be room for improvement and the Astros should be positioned to be contenders for the foreseeable future.

Bill Gilbert

10/28/15

billcgilbert@sbcglobal.net

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Tags: Bill Gilbert on the 2015 Sason of the Houston Astros
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10th Inside-The-Park HR in World Series History

October 28, 2015

Patsy Dougherty of the Boston AL club hit the 2nd inside-the-park HR in Game 2 of the first 1903 World Series. It also was the first one to lead off a World Series game until Alcides Escobar led off Game 1 of the 2015 World Series in the same way.

Patsy Dougherty of the Boston AL club hit the 2nd inside-the-park series HR in Game 2 of the first 1903 World Series. It also was the first one to lead off a World Series game until Alcides Escobar led off Game 1 of the 2015 World Series in the same way.

It had not happened since 1929, but Alcides Escobar of the Kansas City Royals took care of that little drought in the always changing style and history of baseball by hammering a carom shot off the left field that then took a pool table bounce off the left leg of New York Mets center fielder Yoenis Cespedes, leaving the area on a straight and fast roll into the abandoned left field corner due to the presence of left fielder Michael Contorto being now in the company of Cespedes as both pursued the ball in the area of left center from which the latter’s inadvertent kicking assistance effectively made the ball unplayable. The speedy Escobar rounded the bases swiftly and standing up as the list of men who have done this now very rare feat in the World series increases to only ten (10) in total numbers.

INSIDE-THE-PARK HR IN WORLD SERIES HISTORY (1903-2015)

Date	Gm #	Player	Team	Opponent
October 1, 1903	1	Jimmy Sebring	Pittsburgh Pirates	Boston Americans
October 2, 1903	2	Patsy Dougherty	Boston Americans	Pittsburgh Pirates
October 13, 1915	5	Duffy Lewis	Boston Red Sox	Philadelphia Phillies
October 9, 1916	2	Hy Myers	Brooklyn Robins	Boston Red Sox
October 11, 1916	4	Larry Gardner	Boston Red Sox	Brooklyn Robins
October 10, 1923	1	Casey Stengel	New York Giants	New York Yankees
October 3, 1926	2	Tommy Thevenow	St. Louis Cardinals	New York Yankees
October 7, 1928	3	Lou Gehrig	New York Yankees	St. Louis Cardinals
October 12, 1929	4	Mule Haas	Philadelphia Athletics	Chicago Cubs
October 27, 2015	1	Alcides Escobar	Kansas City Royals	New York Mets

Some things are easy and worthy of note:

50% of the 10 World Series inside-the-park homers happened in the dead ball era, between 1903 and 1916, when many of the few homers in general happened when ball got passed fielders in those parks that had fences some 500 feet from home. Not sure of the circumstances on these specific homers, but distant fences and balls that cleanly escaped for good rolls beyond the outfielders is the “usual suspect” in these cases.
Were these type homers unusual back in those days? Well, homers were unusual, but the fact that many of those that did happen were of the rolling too far away to be playable type, my best answer tonight is “probably not so much”. I don’t have the stats on hand to support that assumption.
The fact that two of these “insiders” occurred, one each, in the first two games of the first 1903 World Series speaks in support of their fairly more common occurrence in that early era and baseball culture.
Casey Stengel of the 1923 New York Giants and Lou Gehrig of the 1928 New York Yankees are undoubtedly the two most famous names on this record list. Stengel’s 1923 inside-the-park job against the Yankees at Yankee stadium is loaded with irony and venue coincidence. His running homer also was the first HR of any kind to be struck in a World Series at the new original Yankee stadium during its first year of operation.
90% of all the World Series inside-the-park homers were in the record can by 1929. Tonight’s 10%er by Escobar is 86 years late to the celebration group table.
In baseball, it’s wise to remember a couple of things beyond, but including Yogi’s “it ain’t over til it’s over”: (a) Never buy into the idea that’s you seen it all; and (b) Never say that anything rare you know about in baseball can never happen again. Patsy Dougherty got his inside-the-park World Series at lead off Game 2 of the very first 1903 Boston-Pittsburgh match. It only took Patsy Dougherty one day to follow Jimmy Sebring of Pittsburgh, who got the first “insider” during the first World series Game ever. It then took 112 years for Alcides Escobar to repeat that even rarer feat tonight of getting an inside-the-park homer to lead off a World Series game.

Patsy Dougherty (L) did it first in 1903. Alcides Escobar did it second in 2015. – Both are the only men to lead off a World Series game by hitting an inside-the-park home run. Eight others also have hit “insiders” in the World Series, but not as the lead off batter in their games.

How wonderful this game is, no matter who wins. Leave it to baseball to bring us the refreshment of the unexpected event.

Out of curiosity, one has to wonder. If someone had wanted to put $100 of “mad money” down in Vegas that the first batter in the 2015 World Series was going to hit an inside-the-park home run tonight, we wonder what the odds and payoff might have been?

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Tags: Inside-the-Park HRs in World Series History
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A Slo-Mo Look at an Ordinary Unearned Run

October 27, 2015

BUGS SAYS: “No games, innings, or plays are ever exactly the same. – Remember that top of the 8th the Royals had against our Astros in Game 4 of The 2015 ALDS?”

The following play has nothing to do with Game 4 of the 2015 ALDS played at Minute Maid Park between the Houston Astros and the Kansas City Royals. I just happen to get a little sentimental this time of the year over the ordinary stuff we begin to take for granted that we will be seeing everyday. It’s only when the doors of a season begin to close that we come to the realization that we will now have to get by with replays of the mind until spring and real baseball make their welcome return. It also makes me realize today that, when Rogers Hornsby once said that he spent the winters staring out the window and waiting for spring, that he probably was spending much of that “staring” time harboring thoughts like the following:

Images of an Exciting and Fairly Rare Play …

The runner on first got there with a 9th inning, visiting team, first-hitter-up opposite field dink single to right that landed like a skipping duck on the pond of waving too-tall grass. The score at the time was 2-2.

The next man up, a lefty, took a couple of low and outside fastballs as the speedy runner at first danced away and back to the bag like a feline on catnip – and one with little fear of overweight right-handed starting strikeout pitchers who rarely threw to first in these instances. An attempted theft of second was expected on the next pitch by the anxious, booing crowd of 30,000.

As the next pitch was being loaded for launch and the rules governing “balk” had kicked into place, the runner on first took off like a sprinter in a 100 meters track and field event.

Another low and outside speed ball was the next offering. It could have continued into the dirt for either ball three or a passed ball, but a bunt-poking bat intercepted its down and heading out path on a mobile trajectory that suddenly sent it hopping much more slowly on a bouncing trek down the third base line.

The runner was already rounding second as the third baseman raced in to bare-hand the dying movement of the no longer bouncing bunt no more than ten feet from home. The runner and the shortstop, who did have the benefit of a head start, now shared a mercurial race to the uncovered presence of third base – as the second baseman hustled to cover his own namesake bag – and the pitcher arched over to helplessly watch the play on the bunt and the left-handed first base guy raced to his bag in anticipation of a throw on the bunt attempt. The too thick-legged bunting, now running, batter hauled ass to first. The wise old catcher stayed home.

Frantic could have been the name for this moment.

The third base man wheeled on his right foot as he quickly grabbed the now inert ball and flung it back across his falling-to-the-right body on a new, more aerodynamic course in the general direction of first base. The not so speedy runner there was still quite “gettable,” but the thrown ball had taken a slicing course – and was moving in the general direction of the stands – to a spot that only an initial base man named “Plastic Man” could have converted into a routine force out at first.

The runner now at third and his coach see the flight of the throw and use less than a nanosecond on betting that the way home is now clear. The speedster makes the turn and heads for the plate and the lonely catcher who awaits him as probably little more than a close up witness to the last thing the homies want to see – a man scoring from first on a bunt to third. – The pitcher finally notes the low probability of what he sees little chance for happening – and he jogs behind the catcher for an improbable play at the plate on the front-runner.

To the surprise of no one, the slicing bunt throw bounces off the first base stands rail and bounds on down the right field line. The right fielder makes a perfunctory charge in it its direction, but it is of no use. The runner from first has waltzed home to give the visitors a 3-2 lead. The wide-legged bunter has reached first safely. The visitors will continue batting with a runner on first, no outs, and a one-run lead in the top of the sixth.

“E-5” is the official scorer’s ruling on the play. His rationale? A good 5-3 out play throw was possible and would have gotten the bunting runner – and prevented the run from scoring.

Oh well, starting tonight, the 2015 season still has the World Series to offer – and then we will only be able to see plays like the one just described in our memories, our imaginations, and our computer-simulated baseball hobby games.

Thanks for your indulgence today, everybody. I’m just getting the hot stove ready for the off-season in the most basic of ways – by recreating one of thousands in the scenarios that have filled our minds as actual plays we’ve seen many times over in the course of our rich lifetimes as baseball fans.

Question of the Day: Can your mind come out to play? If so, we’ll be here. In the sandlot of the mind. Just waiting for you to show up.

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Tags: a baseball play of the mind
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