Will Altuve Catch Rose Someday?

“See the ball. ~ Hit the ball.”

 

Jose Altuve’s All Time Hit Total Chart By Season

YEAR AGE PA AB H BA
2011 21 234 221 61 .276
2012 22 630 576 167 .290
2013 23 672 626 177 .283
2014 24 707 660 225 .341
2015 25 689 638 200 .313
2016 26 717 640 216 .338
2017 27 662 590 204 .346
7 YEARS   4311 3951 1250 .316
162 G AVE   711 652 206 .316
           

TABLE DATA KEYS

PA = PLATE APPEARANCES

AB = AT BATS

H = HITS

BA = BATTING AVERAGE

BOLD TYPE = LED LEAGUE & TOTALS

BOLD TYPE ALSO = AVERAGE, EACH CATEGORY PER YEAR

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So be it. Now, if Jose Altuve continues playing at his same rate, does not retire or find himself forced by injury or some other fate of life into either a less productive hitting pace or an early forced exit or long time away from baseball, his chances for reaching 3,000 hits, 4,000 hits, or even surpassing the 4,256 all time hits total of Pete Rose in the following way by time, season, and age prediction.

We stress again. This is only a simple mathematical projection. It is much easier to predict than life itself ever is to confirm and guarantee delivery in advance. Or perhaps we’ve all noticed that reality in our own less famous life planning tracks.

The three numbers we are working with here are: (1) The fact that Altuve already has compiled 1,250 total hits through his first 7 seasons (2011-2017); (2) When we adjust all of Altuve’s stats to how they average over the number of 162-game seasons found within his total hit bag, we find that he is averaging 206 hits per season, through 2017; and (3) at age 27, Altuve’s projected age at the time of these other possible milestones is doable at the rate of 206 hits per full seasons yet played.

To reach 3,000 hits….

3,000 hits goal – 1,250 hits in bag = 1,750 more hits needed

1,750 hits needed divided by the 206 hit full season average = 8.495 more seasons needed.

Jose Altuve will reach 3,000 hits at mid-season in 2026 at age 36.

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To reach 4,000 hits….

4,000 hits goal – 1,250 hits in bag = 2,750 more hits needed

2,750 hits needed divided by the 206 hit full season average = 13.350 more seasons needed.

Jose Altuve will reach 4,000 hits in the first third of the 2031 season at age 41.

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To reach 4,257 hits, surpassing Pete Rose ….

4,257 hits goal – 1,250 hits in bag = 3,007 more hits needed

3,007 hits needed divided by the 206 hit full season average = 14.60 more seasons needed.

Jose Altuve will reach 4,257 hits after the All Star break in the 2032 season at age 42.

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The Voice of Reasonable Bias

Even the great little one’s legs may not be up to playing as often and productively at age 42 as he would need to play to pass Rose, but, what the heck, Rose did it. Who knows? It’s just fun to play with big ideas, especially when it involves a great human being and championship level baseball player like our wonderful Jose Altuve of the Houston Astros. Jose is on his way to the Hall of Fame regardless of whether or not he reaches any of these statistical goals. Although, barring anything unforeseen, it’s hard to see him missing the 3,000 hit total, plus however many other batting titles, World Series rings, and other awards there are out there to be collected annually.

Of course, if Altuve does eventually catch Pete Rose on the hit total board, it will certainly take some pressure off the Hall of Fame. No longer will they have to continually have to answer the question: “How come the all time hit leader is not a member of the Hall of Fame?”

 

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Bill McCurdy

Principal Writer, Editor, Publisher

The Pecan Park Eagle

 

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