Mother-Hope Thoughts for Mother’s Day

There’s a reason that Boston is a City of Champions,
And it’s Name is Soul.

  • This early Mother’s Day morning, the Houston Astros are sitting on top of the AL West by 8 games with a blow-out hope record of 25-11 record and a winning percentage of .694.
  • A .694 winning percentage for the entire season, no matter how improbable that is, would give the club a 112-50 record for the entire season.
  • Guess where winning 112 games puts any club’s chances of winning their division and home field advantage through the league playoffs? (The “best record gets home field advantage” rule should include the World Series, but doesn’t because of that stupid Bud Selig assignment of that determination as a league prize for winning the All Star Game!)
  • Hard as it would be to maintain a .694 W% for the whole season, playing at that level through the first 36 games is still good enough to hold out a more reasonable hope: The Astros can now simply play .500 ball over the course of their remaining 126 games, even if we do still think it’s reasonable to hope they will do better than play even the rest of the way. we are talking about going 63-63 the rest of the way. That’s all it would take. Do that and the Astros finish at 88-74, .543 – and a record that would possibly be good enough to make the playoffs, even after leveling off.
  • Wait! Simple math has more to offer!
  • If the Astros sweep the Yankees today, their actual record ascends to 27-11 with a W% of .711 – and they only have 124 games left to play.
  • Plug in the .500 ball the rest of the way again. Add 62 wins and 62 losses to the new “what if” 27-11 mark and the projected final season record rises by 1 to 89-73, .549.
  • See how easy it is to project success when we’ve got a Mother’s-Day-Good team playing the games for us on the field?
  • One final “what if” should be enough to warm mama’s toast on Mother’s Day morning. (See 10-12).
  • Let assume that today’s hoped-for sweep of the Yankees is merely the start of ten more additional consecutive Astros wins to the current five-game win streak.
  • With ten more wins, the Astros record now jumps to 35-11, .761.
  • At 35-11, .761, the ‘Stros again draw the .500 ball card for their final 116 games. With those remaining 58 wins and 58 losses, the Astros get to finish with 93 wins, 69 losses, and a W% of .574.
  • Bottom Line: Yes. Games are won on the field. Not on paper. But it’s still fun to play with numbers. Let’s just hope this 2017 version of the Astros stays as far above .500 ball as they seem capable of doing in the early going.
  • Happy Mother’s Day, Astros Nation ~ and Everybody Else Too!

 

____________________


Bill McCurdy

Publisher, Editor, Writer

The Pecan Park Eagle

 

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3 Responses to “Mother-Hope Thoughts for Mother’s Day”

  1. Larry Dierker Says:

    One guy who will never forget Mother’s Day. My first opening day opponent. Who is he?

    • Tom Hunter Says:

      Larry,

      According to records I could find, your first opening day opponent on the mound in 1968 was Jim Bunning, who pitched a perfect game on Father’s Day in 1964.

  2. Larry Dierker Says:

    Got me. Should have looked it up.

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