Analyst Bill Gilbert
Looks at the 2017
Hall of Fame Selections
Analyzing the 2017 Hall of Fame Vote
By Bill Gilbert
The Baseball Writers Association of America elected 3 players to the Hall of Fame this year, Jeff Bagwell (86.2%), Tim Raines (86.0%) and Ivan Rodriguez (76.0%)
Of those on the ballot who were not elected, Trevor Hoffman (74.0%) and Vladimir Guerrero (71.7%) were the closest and should be in good position for election in 2017.
There appears to be a softening in the stance the writers have regarding players believed to be associated with performance enhancing drugs. Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds both gained over 40 votes and are now have over 50% of the votes. They have five more years on the ballot to reach the necessary 75%.
Following is a list of candidates that received votes in the election this year. A total of 442 votes were cast. For the holdovers, vote totals for last year are also shown. Newcomers on the 2017 ballot are shown in bold.
| 2017 CANDIDATES | YEARS ON BALLOT | 2016 VOTES / % | 2017 VOTES / % | DIFFERENCE VOTES / % |
| JEFF BAGWELL | 7 | 315 / 71.6 | 381 / 86.2 | 66 / 14.6 |
| TIM RAINES | 15 | 307 / 69.8 | 380 / 86.0 | 73 / 16.2 |
| I. RODRIGUEZ | 1 | 336 / 76.0 | ||
| T. HOFFMAN | 2 | 296 / 67.3 | 327 / 74.0 | 34 / 06.7 |
| V. GUERRERO | 1 | 317 / 71.7 | ||
| ED MARTINEZ | 8 | 191 / 43.4 | 259 / 58.6 | 68 / 15.2 |
| BARRY BONDS | 5 | 195 / 44.3 | 238 / 53.8 | 43 / 09.5 |
| MIKE MUSSINA | 4 | 189 / 43.0 | 229 / 51.8 | 40 / 08.8 |
| C. SCHILLING | 5 | 230 / 52.3 | 199 / 45.0 | -31 / -07.3 |
| LEE SMITH | 15 | 150 / 34.1 | 151 / 34.2 | 01 / 00.1 |
| M. RAMERIZ | 1 | 105 / 23.8 | ||
| LARRY WALKER | 7 | 68 / 15.5 | 97 / 21.9 | 29 / 06.4 |
| FRED McGriff | 8 | 92 / 20.9 | 96 / 21.7 | 04 / 00.8 |
| JEFF KENT | 4 | 73 / 16.6 | 74 / 16.7 | 01 / 00.1 |
| G. SHEFFIELD | 3 | 51 / 11.6 | 59 / 13.3 | 08 / 01.7 |
| BILLY WAGNER | 2 | 46 / 10.5 | 45 / 10.2 | -01 / -00.3 |
| SAMMY SOSA | 5 | 31 / 07.0 | 38 / 08.6 | 07 / 01.6 |
| Under 5%: | ||||
| JORGE POSADA | 1 | 17 / 03.8 | ||
| M. ORDONEZ | 1 | 03 / 00,7 | ||
| ED RENTERIA | 1 | 02 / 00.5 | ||
| J. VARITEK | 1 | 02 / 00.5 | ||
| T. WAKEFIELD | 1 | 01 / 00.2 |
In addition to Rodriguez, two other ballot newcomers received enough votes to remain on the ballot. Both were outfielders, Vladimir Guerrero (71.7%) and Manny Ramirez (23.8%). Guerrero’s high vote total in his first time on the ballot suggests that he should get elected fairly quickly. In something of a surprise, Jorge Posada fell off the ballot in his first year with only 3.8% of the votes. Lee Smith also falls off future ballots after 15 years.
Thirteen of the fifteen holdover candidates received more votes in 2017 than in 2016. The two that didn’t were Curt Schilling and Billy Wagner. Schilling’s decline is likely due to some controversial statements he made which offended some sportswriters. Wagner lost only one vote from 2016.
The following eleven players were on the ballot but did not receive any votes: Casey Blake, Pat Burrell, Orlando Cabrera, Mike Cameron, J.D. Drew, Carlos Guillen, Derrick Lee, Melvin Mora, Arthur Rhodes, Freddy Sanchez and Matt Stairs.
For the fourth straight year, the writers averaged over eight votes on their ballots (8.1) versus the historical average of 6-7. If this continues, the problem of an overcrowded ballot should gradually be relieved. The change that reduced a player’s time on the ballot from 15 to 10 years will also help. The 2018 class of ballot newcomers is headlined by Chipper Jones and Jim Thome who could both be elected on the first ballot.
Bill Gilbert
1/22/2017
Sports Analyst Bill Gilbert
Valued Ongoing Contributor to The Pecan Park Eagle
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