Astros Win the Simple Math Projection

When it comes to winning...

When it comes to winning…
“There’s No Place Like Home!”
~ Houston Astros, 2015

If winning division titles were all a matter of simple probability projections on games left to play with about a month to go, based on home and road winning records to date, the Astros are in line to take the AL WEST in 2015. The math steps taken to arrive at this conclusion are fairly easy to follow below in tabular form. Of course, even for me, math of this nature always brings to mind one of baseball history’s major caveats about paying total attention to probability – and that reminder that features Bobby Thomson’s 1951 “Shot Heard Round the World” and NY Giants announcer Russ Hodges screaming “The Giants Win The Pennant”, ad nauseum, into the ether of recorded baseball history.

All we did here was to examine the the three contending clubs in the MLB-Com data bank, determining their home and road win percentages over all games played through 8/24/15. Then we applied those two H&R win percentages to the games that each club had left to play at home and on the road. Then we simply added these projected yet-to-be-played home and road records to standings to date to finish out the statistical look at how the three contending ALW clubs will end the season.

If were just up the math, the Astros will be rescued from their horrible road record by their lights-out exciting winning mark at home.

At any rate, here’s the same kind of math applied to 2015 that would have shown the Brooklyn Dodgers in late August 1951 as probably in line to win the NL pennant in a walk:

ALL GAMES THRU 8/24/15

ALW W L W% GB
ASTROS 69 57 .548
RANGERS 64 59 .520 3.5
ANGELS 63 61 .508 5

HOME RECORDS THRU 8/24/15

 

ALW W L W% GB
ASTROS 45 21 .682
ANGELS 39 27 .591 6
RANGERS 28 30 .483 13

 

ROAD RECORDS THRU 8/24/15:

 

ALW W L W% GB
RANGERS 36 29 .554
ANGELS 24 34 .431 8.5
ASTROS 24 36 .400 9.5

 

HOME GAMES LEFT TO PLAY

 

ALW AT HOME %W->New W
RANGERS 23 .483 / 11 WINS
ASTROS 15 .682 / 10 WINS
ANGELS 15 .591 / 9 WINS

 

 

ROAD GAMES LEFT TO PLAY

 

ALW ON ROAD %W->New W
RANGERS 16 .554/ 9 WINS
ASTROS 21 .400/ 10 WINS
ANGELS 23 .431/ 9 WINS

 

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS

 

ALW W L W% GB
ASTROS 89 73 .549
RANGERS 84 78 .515 5
ANGELS 81 81 .500 8

Wouldn’t it be a relief to somehow know that our Astros’ suspiciously jinxed record in winnable road games (like last night’s 1-0 Astros loss to the Yankees) was simply our human tendency for leaning our own negativity into the way we resolve failed hope and expectation as either the result of some conditional jinx (like playing on the road) or reading it as the foreboding voice of destiny’s doom?

Back on the sandlot, we had a simpler way of describing our disappointment with losing, when we weren’t too mad or mortified by whom we lost to – or how it happened. And that rationale hung simply in the air as: “That’s the way the cookie sometimes crumbles.”

______________________________

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