Bill Gilbert: HOF Candidate Ratings by Win Shares

Veteran SABR Baseball Researcher/Writer Bill Gilbert today rates the 2015 Hall of Fame Candidates on the basis of their Win Share numbers. - Thank you, Bill one more time for another of your fine analytical contributions to The Pecan Park Eagle.

Veteran SABR Baseball Researcher/Writer Bill Gilbert today rates the 2015 Hall of Fame Candidates on the basis of their Win Share numbers. – Thank you, Bill Gilbert, for another of your fine analytical contributions to The Pecan Park Eagle.

Rating the 2015 Hall of Fame Candidates Based on Win Shares

By Bill Gilbert

One of the first items of business in baseball each year is the announcement of players elected to the Hall of Fame. This leads to lots of speculation and a little analysis prior to the announcement which is scheduled for January 6, 2015.

Many systems exist for evaluating player performance. One such system, the Win Shares method, developed by Bill James in 2002, is a complex method for evaluating players which includes all aspects of performance – offense, defense and pitching. James has stated that, “Historically, 400 Win Shares means absolute enshrinement in the Hall of Fame and 300 Win Shares makes a player more likely than not to be a Hall of Famer. However, future standards may be different. Players with 300-350 Win Shares in the past have generally gone into the Hall of Fame. In the future, they more often will not”.

The 2015 class of Hall of Fame candidates consists of 17 holdovers and 17 players eligible for the first time. Thirteen holdovers have over 300 Win Shares, Barry Bonds with 661, Roger Clemens 421, Craig Biggio 411, Tim Raines 390, Jeff Bagwell 387, Mark McGwire 342, Fred McGriff 326, Alan Trammell 318, Sammy Sosa 311, Mike Piazza 309, Larry Walker 307 and Edgar Martinez 305. Three newcomers have over 300 Win Shares, Gary Sheffield 430, Randy Johnson 326 and Carlos Delgado 303.

In 2014, three players received the necessary 75% of the vote for election by the Baseball Writers of America (BBWAA), Greg Maddux (97.2%), Tom Glavine (91.9%) and Frank Thomas (83.7%).. The 2014 ballot included 19 newcomers and 17 returning candidates. Other than the three players elected, only two others, Mike Mussina (20.3%) and Jeff Kent (15.2%) received the necessary 5% of the votes required to remain on the ballot. Rafael Palmeiro with 569 home runs and 3020 hits dropped off the ballot in his 4th year with only 4.4% of the votes. Jack Morris (61.5%) dropped off the ballot after failing to win election for 15 years.

With the relatively strong incoming class last year, only Craig Biggio (74.8%) and Mike Piazza (62.2%) received more votes than in the previous year. Biggio missed being elected by just two votes.  With another strong, incoming class this year, predicting the results is more difficult than usual and holdovers will have a hard time picking up more votes.

Several players on the ballot have the numbers to be elected but remain tainted with the steroid cloud. Many voters are likely to wait until more is known about the extent of steroid usage before giving them a pass. This, along with the number of strong newcomers on the ballot the last two years has resulted in the ballot becoming quite crowded. A total of 571 ballots were submitted last year and each voter could vote for up to 10 players. Over the years, voters have typically voted for 5 or 6 candidates but last year they voted for an average of 8.4. This increase is likely to continue since there at least 20 candidates on the ballot for which a reasonable case can be made for induction.

The Hall has made one significant change in the voting since last year. Players will now only be kept on the ballot for 10 years rather than 15 years. The immediate impact is that 3 players who have been on the ballot for more than 10 years, Don Mattingly (15 years), Allen Trammell (14 years) and Lee Smith (13 years) will be removed from the ballot next year if they fail to receive 75% of the vote. None of them have been close in the past.

Earlier this year, a panel of Hall of Fame players, sportswriters and baseball executives voted on a group of ten players and executives from the “Golden Era”. All ten candidates had strong credentials but none received 75% of the vote. I was disappointed that two of my boyhood favorites, Gil Hodges and Minnie Minoso and my late good friend, Bob Howsam failed to get elected.

Following is a list of Win Shares for the 34 players on the ballot. Players on the ballot for the first time are shown in bold type. Voting results for 2013 and 2014 are shown for the holdovers.

PLAYER WIN SHARES 2013 VOTES 2013 % 2014 VOTES 2014 %
Barry Bonds 661 206 36.2 198 34.7
Gary Sheffield 430
Roger Clemens 421 214 37.6 202 35.4
Craig Biggio 411 388 68.2 427 74.8
Tim Raines 390 297 52.2 263 46.1
Jeff Bagwell 387 339 59.6 310 54.3
Mark McGwire 342 96 16.9 63 11.0
Jeff Kent 338 87 15.2
Fred McGriff 326 118 20.7 67 11.7
Randy Johnson 326
Alan Trammell 318 141 24.3 119 20.8
Sammy Sosa 311 71 12.5 47 7.2
Mike Piazza 309 329 57.8 355 62.2
Larry Walker 307 123 21.6 58 10.0
Edgar Martinez 305 204 31.2 144 25.2
Carlos Delgado 303
John Smoltz 289
Brian Giles 287
Mike Mussina 270 116 20.3
Don Mattingly 263 75 13.6 47 8.2
PedroMartinez 256
Curt Schilling 227 221 38.8 167 29.2
N. Garciaparra 219
Lee Smith 198 272 47.8 171 29.9
Cliff Lloyd 191
Tom Gordon 179
Rich Aurilia 177
Jermaine Dye 175
Darin Erstad 161
Tony Clark 128
Troy Percival 125
Jason Schmidt 120
Aaron Boone 111
Ed Guardado 100

The 22 players elected to the Hall of Fame by the Baseball Writers since 2000 have averaged 356 Win Shares, a figure exceeded by six players on this year’s ballot.

PLAYER INDUCTION YEAR WIN SHARES
Dave Winfield 2001 415
Kirby Puckett 2001 281
Ozzie Smith 2002 325
Gary Carter 2003 337
Eddie Murray 2003 437
Paul Molitor 2004 414
Dennis Eckersley 2004 301
Wade Boggs 2005 394
Ryne Sandberg 2005 346
Bruce Sutter 2006 168
Cal Ripken 2007 427
Tony Gwynn 2007 398
Goose Gossage 2008 223
Rickey Henderson 2009 535
Jim Rice 2009 282
Andre Dawson 2010 340
Roberto Alomar 2011 375
Bert Blyleven 2011 339
Barry Larkin 2012 347
Frank Thomas 2014 405
Greg Maddux 2014 398
Tom Glavine 2014 314
AVERAGE   356

Win Shares are fundamentally a quantitative measure of a player’s accomplishments. A measure of the quality of a player’s offensive performance is OPS+ which compares his OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging average) adjusted for park effects and era with the league average during his career. An OPS+ of 120 suggests that his performance is 20% better than that of a league average player. A similar approach (ERA+) can be used to compare a pitcher’s ERA against the league average during his career.

The following is a rank order of OPS+ and ERA+ for the 34 candidates on the 2015 ballot (First year candidates are shown again in bold type.):

OPS+ rank order of batting candidates on the 2015 HOF Ballot:

BATTERS OPS+
Barry Bonds 182
Mark McGwire 163
Jeff Bagwell 149
Edgar Martinez 147
Mike Piazza 143
Larry Walker 141
Gary Sheffield 140
Carlos Delgado 138
Brian Giles 136
Fred McGriff 134
Sammy Sosa 128
Don Mattingly 127
N. Garciaparra 124
Tim Raines 123
Jeff Kent 123

ERA+ rank order of pitching candidates on the 2015 HOF Ballot:

PITCHERS ERA+
STARTERS ERA+
Pedro Martinez 154
Roger Clemens 143
Randy Johnson 135
Curt Schilling 127
John Smoltz 125
Mike Mussina 123
Jason Schmidt 110
RELIEVERS ERA+
Troy Percival 146
Lee Smith 132
Tom Gordon 113
EddieGuardado 109

The Win Shares system favors players with long productive careers like Sheffield, Raines and Biggio, although it appears to under-rate pitchers, while OPS+ rewards strong offensive players who had shorter, more dominant careers like Martinez and Mattingly. ERA+ favors relief pitchers since their ERAs are generally lower because they are not charged with runs scored by inherited runners.

 

Conclusions:

  1. Four players will be elected in 2015, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz and Craig Biggio.

 

  1. Mattingly, Trammell and Smith will fail to win election in their final year on the BBWAA ballot.

 

  1. Bagwell, Piazza, Raines and Schilling will move up but will fall short of 75%.
  1. While the 2015 class is very strong at the top, it is weak at the bottom. As many as 10 newcomers may not receive even one vote. Five or six newcomers should receive enough votes to remain on the ballot.

 

  1. The incoming class in 2016 is not as strong as the last two – Ken Griffey, Jim Edmonds, Trevor Hoffman and Billy Wagner. This could provide an opportunity for some holdovers to get elected.

 

  1. There will not be a groundswell of support for Rich Aurilia, Aaron Boone, Darin Erstad, Tom Gordon or Eddie Guardado, among others.

If I had a ballot, I would cast votes for Johnson, Martinez, Smoltz, Biggio, Bagwell, Piazza, Raines, Schilling, Trammell and Mussina.

Bill Gilbert

12/27//2014

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5 Responses to “Bill Gilbert: HOF Candidate Ratings by Win Shares”

  1. Mark W. Says:

    I’d vote for Bernie Williams before I’d vote for Edgar Martinez. 311 Win Shares to 305. Only problem is, Williams got less than 5% of the vote after only one year on the ballot, so he was dropped from the HOF ballot. Martinez is now at his sixth year on the ballot. I guess Bernie Williams had an unfair edge over Martinez, since he got to play center field all the time which allowed him to pad his Win Share numbers. Can’t fool those writers, though. They saw through Williams’ lucky edge.

    Meanwhile, Dale Murphy (294 Win Shares) and Don Mattingly (263 Win Shares) spent the entire 15 years on the HOF ballot. Granted, Mattingly reasonably can be regarded as being the stronger hitter at his peak. But Mattingly’s peak was 5 years, and he played first base, and batted strictly left-handed in a Yankee Stadium that favored lefty hitters. Murphy was very productive for a long time, but he also batted in a hitters home park.

    There are plenty of persuasive numbers that indicate the switch-hitting Bernie Williams had a more productive offensive career than Murphy: 125 OPS+ to 121; .381 OBP to .346; 49.4 WAR to 46.2; 6.5 RC/G to 5.7 RC/G; .297 BA to .265 BA.

    Now look at Williams vs. Mattingly: 49.4 WAR to 42.2 WAR; 125 OPS+ to 127 OPS+ (slight edge to Mattingly); .381 OBP to .358 OBP; 6.5 RC/G to 6.1 RC/G; .297 BA to .307 BA (slight edge to Mattingly).

    When we introduce the topic of post-season performance, the conversation pretty much ends. Williams was a post-season behemoth. All this while playing a Gold Glove center field in Yankee Stadium. How does he drop off the ballot after one year? It may not be the first time, but in the case of Bernie Williams, the BBWAA got it very wrong. I’m not saying Bernie Williams is a slam-dunk Hall of Famer. But one and out on the ballot? That’s plain ignorance.

  2. Marsha Franty Says:

    Yankee fan here who agrees with Mark’s comment (above). Bernie Williams was an excellent, consistent, sometimes dazzling player. His drop from the HOF list shows, once again, the faulty voting system currently used. Sad….

  3. Dennis Corcoran Says:

    I found Bill Gilbert’s column very informative about Win Shares. I also agree that Bernie Williams should have been on the BBWAA ballot more than one year.
    I enjoy Bill McCurdy’s Blog and I appreciate that he gave my book (“Induction Day at Cooperstown A History of the baseball Hall of Fame Ceremony” (McFarland-2011.) a nice review in a previous column. It’s the only book ever written about the history of this event. If you are interested in purchasing the book, the best way to get it is to order it from me. It retails for $35, but I sell it for $25, inscribe it and include 30 Trivia Questions taken from the book. Let me know by email: djcinductionguru@gmail.com
    By the way, I spent six years researching and writing it.My inspiration for writing the book were the fans who come every year like our New Jersey friends who invited us to our first induction in 2004 (Eckersley and Molitor), Also, the many fans who maybe come once in a lifetime to honor their hero like Ron Santo in 2012. I say this because I’m interested in writing a sequel and whether you have attended one induction or many inductions, if you have a memory that you would like to share please do. (see above email.)

  4. gregclucas Says:

    I am not a fan or advocate of any of the “invented” stats of Bill James or others. Most are so artificial. However, those who enjoy playing around with them is perfectly OK with me. Just don’t push them so hard as really being anything more than “fun.” What players actually do and WHEN the do it is a real determining factor. Real analytical stats that show tendencies of what hitters do with certain pitches and against certain pitchers or where to play them on defense depending on your pitcher’s stuff are valid. So are the numbers that show how important it is to jump ahead (or fall behind) in the count. But any stats used purely to rank players are of little use as far as actually playing the game. Interesting to note that Bill’s top six HOF candidates happen to be the same six the MLB network is mentioning on the promo for the show on Jan 6. Co-incidence? Hope its more than that because the list includes Biggio and Bagwell. It also includes two players that fail the Win Share test– Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz.

  5. Mark W. Says:

    Greg, I believe the 300 Win Shares threshold James mentions is for position players. I’m not sure where the line is for pitchers, but it’s likely below 300. I do know that Win Shares is built upon his Runs Created method but also incorporates defense. I look at several stats in combination (as I did above) rather than only one in making assessments. I tend to de-emphasize counting stats like HRs and RBIs, the former affected heavily by park factors and the latter by opportunities. Williams was a terrific contributor to, and a vital cog in, a team that went to five world series in six years (winning four) and that went to the playoffs in the final thirteen consecutive years of his 16 year career. On what basis can it be justified to bump a player with his sterling credentials off the Hall of Fame ballot after one year above 5%.

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