The Pecan Park Eagle

Who Were the Most Productive Offensive Players in 2014?

By Bill Gilbert

Numerous methods have been devised to measure offensive performance. The most common are batting average, on-base percentage and slugging average. Since none of these averages provides a complete picture by itself, a more comprehensive measure of offensive performance is useful. Such a measure would include the following elements:

1. The ability to get on base.
2. The ability to hit with power.
3. The ability to add value through base running.

The first two elements are measured by on-base percentage and slugging average. A measure of offensive performance, which encompasses both as well as base running achievements, is Bases per Plate Appearance (BPA). This measure accounts for the net bases accumulated by a player per plate appearance. It is calculated as follows:

BPA = (TB + BB + HB + SB – CS – GIDP) / (AB + BB + HB + SF)

Where: BPA = Bases per Plate Appearance

TB   = Total Bases

BB   = Bases on Balls

HB   = Hit by Pitch

SB   = Stolen Bases

CS   = Caught Stealing

GIDP = Grounded into Double Plays

AB   = At Bats

SF   = Sacrifice Flies

The numerator accounts for all of the bases accumulated by a player, reduced by the number of times he is caught stealing or erases another runner by grounding into a double play. The denominator accounts for the plate appearances when the player is trying to generate bases for himself. Sacrifice hits are not included as plate appearances, since they represent the successful execution of the batter’s attempts to advance another runner.

Major league BPA for the past fifteen years are shown below along with the number of players with BPA over .550 and .600:

Year   2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

BPA .481 .468 .457 .461 .468 .456 .470 .463 .458 .461 .446 .442 .447 .440 .426

.550    50   46   39 42   33   34   46   34 41  42 19   25   12   14     9

.600   30   26   17 15   18   13   14   15 11   16 7   7   5     3     4

Offensive production peaked in 2000 before declining in the early years of this century. BPA declined significantly in 2014 and was the lowest in over 15 year.

In the 1990s, there were 14 individual .700 BPA seasons. In the eight year period from 2000 to 2007, there were 18. The highest BPA in the 1990s was recorded by Mark McGwire in 1998 (.799). Barry Bonds shattered that with .907 in 2001, the highest figure ever recorded, topping Babe Ruth’s best two years (1920 and 1921). Bonds followed that with .869 in 2002, .818 in 2003 and .882 in 2004. There have not been any hitters with a BPA of .700 since 2007. The last player to make it was Alex Rodriguez (.702) in 2007. Surprisingly, Albert Pujols has not had a .700 BPA in his fourteen seasons.

The .700 BPA (BASES PER PLATE APPEARANCE) seasons from 2000 to 2013 are listed as follows:

Player	Team	Year	BPA
Barry Bonds	San Francisco	2001	.907
Barry Bonds	San Francisco	2004	.882
Barry Bonds	San Francisco	2002	.869
Barry Bonds	San Francisco	2003	.818
Sammy Sosa	Chicago Cubs	2001	.758
Barry Bonds	San Francisco	2000	.745
Jim Thome	Cleveland	2002	.728
Manny Rameriz	Cleveland	2000	.726
Todd Helton	Colorado	2000	.720
Luis Gonzalez	Arizona	2001	.713
Todd Helton	Colorado	2001	.709
Carlos Delgado	Toronto	2000	.707
Larry Walker	Colorado	2001	.707
Jason Giambi	Oakland	2001	.706
Travis Hafner	Cleveland	2006	.703
Alex Rodriguez	NY Yankees	2007	.702
Jason Giambi	Oakland	2001	.700
Ryan Howard	Philadelphia	2006	.700

The yearly BPA leaders from 1992 through 2014 are as follows:

1992 Bonds, .734

1993 Bonds, .740

1994 Bagwell, .768

1995 Belle, .692

1996 McGwire, .765

1997 Walker,  .770

1998 McGwire, .799

1999 McGwire,   .735 2000 Bonds  .745

2001 Bonds, .907

2002 Bonds, .869

2003 Bonds, .818

2004 Bonds, .882

2005 D. Lee, .699

2006 Hafner, .703

2007 A. Rodriguez, .702

2008 Pujols, .685

2009 Pujols, .696

2010 Bautista, .671

2011 Bautista, .681

2012 Trout, .665

2013 C. Davis, .670

2014 Trout, .623

The benchmark for an outstanding individual season is .600. Following is a list of only four players with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title and with a BPA of .600 in 2014. The list is topped by Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels who also led in 2012.

Bases per Plate Appearance (BPA) of .600+ in 2014

————————————————-

List of 4 2014 Players with .600+ BPAs and enough at bats to qualify for the battle title in 2014

   Player           BPA   BPA LG Seasons Comments

1. Mike Trout   .623 .649   A   3   Over .600 in each of his 3 full seasons.
2. Giancarlo Stanton .614 .542   N   2   Big season led to big bucks.
3. Andrew McCutchen .613 .574   N   1  Better than MVP season in 2013.
4. Jose Abreu       .600  —   A   1   Cuban rookie did it all.

Two other players had a BPA over .600 in 2013 but fell short in 2014.

No. of 2013   2014     .600+

   Player           BPA  BPA LG Seasons Comments            

1 Chris Davis    .670 .477  A   1   .196 BAVG and suspension.

2 Miguel Cabrera   .663 .528   A   5   An off-year by his standards.

Three active players have a BPA over .600 for their careers:

2014          Career

Player            Age            BPA           BPA   Comments

————-      —      —-       —-   —————————

Mike Trout           22      .623       .623   Quick rise to the top.

Albert Pujols         34    .466       .611  In decline phase of career.

Alex Rodriguez         38     —       .609   Suspended for 2014.

Another list of interest is of players with a BPA of over .600 in 2014 who did not have enough plate appearances (PA) to qualify for the batting title.

Player           Age BPA   PA   Comments

————— —  —- —   —————————

Troy Tulowitzki 29 .643 375   Would have been first with more playing time.

Steve Pearce     27 .608 383 Entered 2014 with career BPA of .427

Looking at the other end of the spectrum, twenty five players who earned enough playing time to qualify for the batting title had a BPA less than .400 in 2014. With the decline in offensive production, this list gets longer every year and now includes some players who were previously near the top (David Wright, Derek Jeter).

Player                           BPA   Team

—————–               —-   ——————————

117 Jason Kipnis                 .399   Indians

118 Jason Castro                 .397   Astros

119 Gerardo Parra                .394   Diamondbacks/Brewers

120 James Loney                 .393   Rays

121 Salvador Perez               .391   Royals

122 Jed Lowrie                   .390   A’s

123 Austin Jackson               .389   Tigers/Mariners

124 Xander Bogaerts             .389   Red Sox

125 David Wright                 .387   Mets

126 Billy Butler                 .386   Royals

127 J.J. Hardy                   .385   Orioles

128 Domonic Brown               .385   Phillies

129 Casey McGehee               .375   Marlins

130 Aaron Hill                   .373   Diamondbacks

131 Omar Infante                 .372   Royals

132 Yunel Escobar               .370   Rays

133 D.J. LeMahieu               .365   Rockies

134 Elvis Andrus                 .364   Rangers

135 Jean Segura                 .360   Brewers

136 Chris Johnson               .358   Braves

137 Adeiny Hechavarria           .350   Marlins

138 Derek Jeter                 .345   Yankees

139 Zack Cozart                 .331   Reds

140 Matt Dominguez               .324   Astros

141 Andrelton Simmons           .322   Braves

Only one player compiled a batting average over .300, an on-base average over .400, a slugging percentage over .500 and bases per plate appearance over .600 in 2014.

Player             BAVG       OBA       SLG       BPA      OPS

Andrew McCutchen     .314     .410     .542     .613       .952

Another player has these numbers for his career.

Player             BAVG       OBA       SLG       BPA       OPS

Albert Pujols       .317     .403     .588      .611     .991

Another means of measuring offensive performance is Bases per Out, also called Total Average. The top 10 players on both lists for 2014 are shown below.

Bases per Plate

Appearance                             Bases per Out

1 Mike Trout         .623   Angels     1 Andrew McCutchen 1.046 Pirates

2 Giancarlo Stanton   .614   Marlins     2 Mike Trout       1.018 Angels

3 Andrew McCutchen   .613   Pirates     3 Giancarlo Stanton 1.017 Marlins

4 Jose Abreu         .600   White Sox   4 Victor Martinez   1.000 Tigers

5 Victor Martinez     .585   Tigers     5 Jose Bautista     .981 Blue jays

6 Anthony Rizzo     .580   Cubs      6 Jose Abreu         .980 White Sox

7 Jose Bautista     .579   Blue Jays   7 Anthony Rizzo     .946 Cubs

8 Edwin Encarnacion   .570   Blue Jays   8 Michael Brantley   .914 Indians

9 Michael Brantley   .555   Indians     9 Edwin Encarnacion .891 Blue Jays

10 Carlos Gomez       .546   Brewers   10 Jayson Werth       .884 Nationals

Both methods confirm that three players (Trout, McCutchen and Stanton) separated themselves offensively from the pack in 2014.

Nine players appear on both lists but not in the same order. Carlos Gomez is on the first list and Jayson Werth is on the second one. They are different type players. Gomez gets his production largely from extra base hits and stolen bases while Werth gets a lot of his from bases on balls which results in fewer outs.

Bill Gilbert

bgilbert35@yahoo.com

12/8/14

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Editor’s Note: Please refer all questions to Bill Gilbert at the email address listed beneath his name at the end of the article.

Thank you. ~ The Pecan Park Eagle.

 

 

 

 

Tags: Bill Gilbert on the BPA stat as a tool for assessing offense in baseball over the course of a season.

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