Bill Gilbert is a long-time member of SABR, a veteran data analyst, and a regular writing contributor to The Pecan Park Eagle.
Astros Should Show Some Improvement in 2014
By Bill Gilbert
E-Mail Bill Gilbert @ billcgilbert@sbcglobal
At the end of the 2012 season, I put together a rather bold projection for the next three years as the Astros struggled for respectability. I projected an improvement in 2013 to 60 wins, which didn’t happen followed by 70 wins in 2014. With only 51 wins in 2013, winning 70 in 2014 appears to be a real stretch. However, some improvements have been made which should get the win total into the 60s.
The Astros were deficient in virtually every category in 2013. The biggest deficiency was in relief pitching which was responsible for numerous losses last year. This should be the biggest area of improvement with the addition of Jesse Crain, Chad Qualls, Matt Albers and Anthony Bass and some expected improvement from Josh Fields and Kevin Chapman. The starting pitching is a concern with two members of the rotation, Jarred Cosart and Brett Oberholtzer, having less than a year of major league experience and another, Lucas Harrell, coming off a very poor season.
The first item of business will be to put an end to the 15 game losing streak that the Astros carry into the 2014 season. This won’t be easy since the Astros begin the season with a 3-game series against the Yankees. Another important item of business is to resolve the television controversy with Comcast which currently prohibits a large segment of the Astros dwindling fan base from watching the games. However, a resolution of this problem does not appear to be forthcoming.
The Astros have had five successive losing seasons, the longest in the Major Leagues, a distinction they share with their 1962 expansion partners, the New York Mets. It appears that the two franchises are back where they started over 50 years ago although the Mets are closer to returning to respectability than are the Astros.
In each of the last two years, the Astros have used 50 players over the course of the season. There should more stability this year but hopefully, if George Springer starts strong at Oklahoma City, he should be in Houston before mid-season. However, most of the top prospects won’t start arriving until 2015 or 2016.
I will go out on the limb to predict that the changes made since last year should result in 66 wins. This won’t be enough to get them out of last place in the strong American League West Division but it could allow them to finish with more wins than the Minnesota Twins and the Miami Marlins.
The Pecan Park Eagle 
April 1, 2014 at 5:51 pm |
A man who is in the Pearland Oilers Baseball Hall of Fame, played briefly for the University of Houston, was my first little league coach, and has been a life-long Houston fan (Buffs, Colt .45s, Astros), told me recently that because of the disastrous Comcast cable deal, he has “just about lost interest in them–especially now that they are in the American League.” What the hell is going on?
April 1, 2014 at 8:04 pm |
I used to enjoy watching the Astros when they were playing at time which was staggered from the Cardinals but now I can’t and yes it does effect my level of interest in them. Add the fact they play in the AL which I find less enjoyable than NL ball and they are becoming more and more of just a memory to me.
I am predicting 70 wins for the Astros.
April 2, 2014 at 1:15 am |
Their team OPS was third worst in the league, and their starting pitchers allowed .37 runs per 9 innings than the second worst team. I don’t think their biggest problem was that their scrubs weren’t good enough.