Craig Biggio:
Work of Art by Opie Otterstad
If it were up to the people like me who watched him play for twenty years, Craig Biggio would be going into the Baseball Hall of Fame on the first ballot opportunity when the 2013 class results of the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) poll are announced on January 9, 2013.
But it isn’t up to everyday lifelong fans like you and me. It’s up to a national group of sportswriters who may or may not have seen Craig Biggio play, people who have achieved their right to decide based on their choice of professions and, hopefully, some considerable study of the game and its history. I would hope too that they each voter has had some experience playing the game, even if it was only kid ball or sandlot, so that they may, at least, possibly own a deeper personal appreciation for how hard baseball is to play brilliantly at any level.
What I’m saying is that history tells us the voters are governed by factors that are far more subjective than the stats generated by the HOF candidates during their careers. Selection here is not as easy as the everyday test for “is the sun hot?” The BBWAA is filled with some arrogant human beings who wouldn’t vote for the sun on the first ballot if the question was “what is the cause of sunburn?”
No one, no matter how obviously great he was as a player, has been voted into the HOF with 100% of the votes on the first ballot and few have gotten the 75% they need to be elected their first rattle out of the box.
Craig Biggio is not the kind of candidate who would be expected to be everyone’s choice for a number of good reasons. For example, some voters who never really saw him play over some of his best stretches may look only at the bottom line to see that he collected 3,060 hits, but hit only .281 over twenty years. These will conclude that his hit totals are simply a product of his playing durability over time and that he doesn’t deserve the HOF, at least, not on the first ballot, because he didn’t post a plus .300 batting average for his career. Others will take the “nobody gets in on the first ballot” approach and not even waste time on something as frivolously simplistic as the previously offered consideration.
As Brian T. Smith noted in his article in today’s Sunday Houston Chronicle article of 1/06/13, Jackie Robinson and Joe Morgan are the only two primarily second basemen to be inducted into the HOF on the first ballot, but that Robinson’s case was boosted by his role in breaking down the color line and Morgan was riding the wave of the Big Red Machine dynasty in Cincinnati. Biggio, another primarily second baseman, was neither a civil rights trailblazer nor a member of any dynasty in Houston. Biggio’s only trip to the 2005 World Series resulted in his Astros getting swept in four games by the Chicago White Sox. Historical precedence by position weighs in on the side of “wait ’til next year, Bidge.”
A Wishing Well Thought. Maybe the voters will catch the virus that inundates Houston’s need to feel good about something in 2013. After two consecutive 100-loss seasons and prospects for another coming this year as the largely unpopular move of the Astros to the American League unfolds on the heels of a roster purge of established big league talent, perhaps the HOF voters will be affected by the city’s in-the-air need to have something to feel good about now.
Maybe the voters will get such a bad case of this Houston Sympathy virus that they will vote Jeff Bagwell into the Hall along side of his Astros “salt and pepper” partner, Craig Biggio.
My Final Take. Wishing never makes anything happen. I think Biggio has a chance of going in this first time, but the odds are against it. If he misses this time, which will disappoint, but not surprise, I think he will be close enough to 75% this year to make it next time. Those 3,060 hits scream too loudly to be ignored for long. Just as importantly, Craig Biggio possesses the character cachet that HOF voters would prefer for the faces of both the HOF and the first true-blue Astros inductee.
As for Bagwell, I’m less hopeful. I don’t see him going in this year and I will not be surprised to see him register fewer votes this time. His negative weights are his association by physical appearance and production during the ‘roids era with some of those who’ve come closer to actual conviction of abuse who are now on the ballot to bring that issue back to the public mind. Also, I think the shortfall impact on his career home runs total that was caused by the shoulder damage that brought about his early retirement will now hurt him. “449” and his record for the disastrously lost 1994 season aren’t enough power noise to carry him over the hill with many voters.
The Truth. We’ll all find out in three days.
The Pecan Park Eagle 
January 6, 2013 at 6:27 pm |
Bill-
Excellent piece on Biggio. You probably saw the piece I wrote last week where I predicted that Biggio, Bagwell and Piazza would be elected. Based on what I have seen since then, I may have been too optimistic. Bill Deane who has been predicting HOF voting results for years with a pretty good record forecasts that no one will be elected by the writers this year but that Biggio will get the most votes (72%). I’ll send you his analysis.
Bill Gilbert
January 6, 2013 at 6:49 pm |
As always good read – I had a friend send me the following which shows a running total of the HOF votes from those who have made their selections public.
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/newsstand/discussion/the_2012_hall_of_fame_ballot_collecting_gizmo
January 6, 2013 at 7:36 pm |
I predict Biggio is the only player elected on this year’s ballot.
January 6, 2013 at 10:29 pm |
The thing that impresses me most about Biggio’s career stats are the 668 doubles. Only Cobb, Musial, Speaker and Rose are ahead of him.
January 7, 2013 at 3:19 am |
One of the many problems with the HoF is that the institution doesn’t enforce its own voting rules. Therefore those arrogant people who don’t vote for players on their first year are allowed to continue voting.