Posts Tagged ‘Bill Gilbert on Houston Astros’

Bill Gilbert: Worst Astros Finish Strong

October 10, 2012

SABR Colleague Bill Gilbert is back with the Pecan Park Eagle today to give us his final appraisal of the worst season of the Houston Astros on the field. Thanks again Bill for making your two cents worth, at least a buck and a quarter at current market valuation. We shall hope that your closing possibilities that the Astros may be back to a competitive level of play by 2015 live up over time with reality. If they do, I will be hoping we get to keep the core leaders of the club’s competitive resurrection once the “boyz2men” new Astros stars are good enough and old enough and contract free enough to ask Mr. Crane for some real money. If all the good efforts of Mr. Luhnow go the way we hope they shall, we shall next hope that we never move to an operational level in which we only get to keep the star players who are willing to remain in Houston at below market level salaries.

The line between fiscal responsibility  and miserly cheapness is sometimes blurry and shrouded with clubs that never quite get to the World Series before they lose all their best players to trades or free agency. For now, we shall best hope that the new ownership understands this point and that we shall stay clear of administrative murkiness in the financial policy area once the Luhnow Field Performance Plan leads the Astros out of the current rebuilding wilderness.

That being said, here is the inimitable Bill Gilbert and his well=considered thoughts and conclusions on the field side of things in 2012. – Bill McCurdy, The Pecan Park Eagle.

Minute Maid Park in Houston during brighter days. The 2012 Astros finished with a worst-in-their-history record of 55 wins and 107 losses, but hold hope for better days to come through a rigorous rebuilding of the farm system. Bill Gilbert comments today on what their actual field performances may be telling us.

Astros Complete Worst Season with a Strong Finish

By Bill Gilbert

Bill Gilbert

 The Houston Astros finished the 2012 season with a record of 55-107, one game worse than last year.  After playing their worst baseball in the team’s 51 year history in June, July and August (18-63), the team seemed to respond to the leadership of interim manager, Tony DeFrancesco and compiled a 15-15 record beginning September 1, slightly better than that of The Texas Rangers (15-16) in the same time frame.

Except for the Cardinals, who took 5 games out of 6 from the Astros in September, the team inflicted some pain on the other teams they played.  They took 2 out of 3 from the Reds in Cincinnati in a series beginning September 7 but it obviously didn’t slow down the Reds as they breezed to the NL Central Division title.  Next came the Phillies who rode into town on a 7-game winning streak that propelled them into contention for a wild card.  They figured to keep rolling against Houston’s band of replacement players but it didn’t happen.  The Astros took 3 out of 4 and the Phillies were not heard from again as a potential contender.

The Pirates came to town on September 21, desperately seeking a few wins that would allow them to finish with a winning record for the first time in 20 years.  However, the Astros took 2 out of 3, pretty much putting the winning record out of reach.  The Astros moved on to Milwaukee to face the Brewers who had been hot and still had an outside chance at the wild card.  The Astros took 2 of 3, mathematically eliminating the Brewers from any chance for post-season play.

Finally, the Astros finished the season in Chicago against the Cubs, who needed to sweep the 3-game series to keep from having a 100-loss season for the first time in 50 years.  However, the Astros received shutout pitching from Bud Norris, Lucas Harrell and the bullpen to take the first 2 games of the series before dropping the finale 5-4.  The loss in the final game was disappointing since a win would have ended the Astros tenure in the National League the same way they came in with a sweep of the Cubs in 1962.  Also it would have been win No. 4000 for the club. Instead they finish their 51-year stay in the National League with a record of 3999-4134.

The Astros relative success in the last month of the season was largely the result of two things that had been missing all season, consistent pitching and the long ball.  The staff turned in 5 shutouts in the final 30 games and the hitters bashed 34 home runs.  However this wasn’t enough to keep the Astros from ranking near the bottom in many hitting and pitching categories.  For the season, they scored an average of 3.6 runs per game, the lowest in the major leagues.  They finished last in the National League in batting average (.236), on-base percentage (.302) and slugging average (.371) while striking out more than any other team.  Despite the improvement in September, the pitchers ERA was 4.56 for the season compared to the league average of 3.94.  Only the Rockies were worse.

Team MVP, Jose Altuve led the club in batting average (.290), on-base percentage (.340) and stolen bases (33).  Justin Maxwell led the team in home runs with 18 and J.D. Martinez was the RBI leader with 55 despite spending some time in the minor leagues.  Harrell led the pitching staff with 11 wins and an ERA of 3.76.  The top reliever was Wilton Lopez with 6 wins, 10 saves and an ERA of 2.17.

The Astros used 27 position players and 23 pitchers during the season.  Nine players, mostly veterans, were traded away during the season and most of the rest were auditioning for positions in 2013.  Some showed significant promise.  Matt Dominguez may look like he is too young to shave but plays third base well and hit better than expected.  Maxwell has power but must cut down on strikeouts to be an everyday player.  Former Met prospect, Fernando Martinez, played well in September and should be a factor next year.  Jed Lowrie has the makings of an above average shortstop both offensively and defensively.

Looking to the future, patience will be required.  Here’s my blueprint for the future:

Year                                    Wins                        Status

2012                                    55                        Embarrassing

2013                                    60-70                        Improving

2014                                    70-80                        Respectable

2015                                    81+                        Contending

This is a bold projection but I think it is warranted based on the bold steps taken by Jeff Luhnow in tearing down and rebuilding the franchise.  Anything less will probably result in further erosion of what’s left of the fan base.  The key will be a significant upgrade in the pitching staff.  Harrell, Norris and Jordan Lyles could become reliable starting pitchers but none projects as an ace.  Most of the players the Astros obtained in trades were pitchers and several of them need to develop into productive major leaguers for the Astros to regain their position as a perennial contender.

Bill Gilbert

10/9/12

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Astros Rewrite July by Bill Gilbert

August 2, 2012

Even as the Astros burst into the second day of August 2012 with their cage-rattling August start to the month hanging out the window as a 13-4 loss to the Brewers, there’s still time to review the worst July in franchise history.  Thanks to Bill Gilbert of the Rogers Hornsby Chapter of SABR, here’s another take on the July trail that we hope is eventually best remembered as “the road less traveled.” Unfortunately, for now, it seems to be the only road available to the Astros.

Thanks, Bill. Your long-term, always well-considered evaluations of the Houston Astros are important to all serious followers of the club.

Astros Rewrite Record Book for Futility in July

 By Bill Gilbert

billcgilbert@sbcglobal.net

Bill Gilbert

             The Astros had the worst month in their 51-year history in July with a record of 3-24.  After starting the month with six straight losses, they beat Milwaukee 6-3 in what would be Wandy Rodriguez’ last win in a Houston uniform.  They then came right back for another win nine days later over San Diego, the last win for J.A. Happ for the Astros.  That’s when the problems really started as the team reeled off a 12 game losing streak before Lucas Harrell beat Pittsburgh, 9-5. The team finished the month with 2 more losses.

            Offensively, the Astros were last in the league in July with a batting average of .230, a slugging average of .351 and 3.15 runs per game.  The pitching was even worse with an ERA of 5.95, the highest in the major leagues.  The pitchers issued a major league high 96 walks and also allowed a major league high .296 batting average.  The bullpen converted only 2 of 10 save opportunities.

Of greater importance were the five trades that were completed in July.  In addition to Rodriguez and Happ, Carlos Lee, Brett Myers, Brandon Lyon, Chris Johnson and David Carpenter were also traded away.  In return, the Astros received 15 prospects, currently in the minor leagues, and two fringe major leaguers.  The trades significantly weakened the 2012 team but the team was likely to finish last in any case.  After four dismal seasons, a complete rebuild was obviously needed and General Manager, Jeff Luhnow, had indicated this was coming before the season started.  However, a rebuild of this magnitude is almost unprecedented.  Luhnow has been very decisive and has received favorable comments from baseball insiders for what he has been able to accomplish.  However, it will be at least three years before we will know how successful these moves were.

A reasonable expectation might be that the team will show some improvement next year and further improvement in 2014.  By 2015, the team could be in contention if some of the prospects develop and some other moves are made.  Unfortunately, it will be more difficult with the Astros moving to the American League.

As for bright spots in July, there weren’t many. Jose Altuve played in his first All-Star Game (and possibly his last since he will be competing with Robinson Cano, Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler in the American League).  Scott Moore led the team with five home runs, the only player with more than two and Carlos Corporan batted .385.  Both are veteran minor league journeymen, filling in for injured major leaguers.  Harrell was the best starting pitcher in May with an ERA of 3.03 but won only one of his five starts.

What can be expected for the rest of this season?  Not much, unfortunately.  The pitching staff has been decimated with the loss of Rodriguez, Happ, Lyon and Myers.  Bud Norris and Lucas Harrell are the only reliable starting pitchers and the relief pitchers have been unable to get the job done.  Francisco Cordero, 37, was obtained in the Lyon deal, presumably to fill the closer role but he has failed in his three save opportunities with a record of 0-3 and an ERA of 18.00, the same as Brian Bogusevic.

8/1/12

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