Posts Tagged ‘Bill Gilbert’

Bill Gilbert: Analyzing the 2016 HOF Vote

January 13, 2016
SABR Analyst and Pecan Park Eagle Contributor Bill Analyst takes a look today at the 2016 Hall of Fame Vote.

SABR Analyst and Pecan Park Eagle Contributor Bill Analyst takes a look today at the 2016 Hall of Fame Vote.

Analyzing the 2016 Hall of Fame Vote

 By Bill Gilbert

The Baseball Writers Association of America elected 2 players to the Hall of Fame this year, Ken Griffey. Jr. (99.3%) and Mike Piazza (83.0%). Griffey’s percentage was the highest ever recorded, exceeding Tom Seaver’s 98.84% in 1992.

Of those on the ballot who were not elected, Jeff Bagwell (71.6%) and Tim Raines (69.8%) were the closest and should be in good position for election in 2017.

Fifteen of the seventeen holdovers on the ballot received a higher percentage of the votes in 2016 than in 2015 led by Mike Mussina (+18.4%), Edgar Martinez (+16.4%), Bagwell (+15.9%) Alan Trammell (+15.8% in his final year on the writers ballot), Raines (+14.8%), Curt Schilling (+13.1%) and Piazza (+13.1%). The only holdovers to lose ground were Gary Sheffield (from 11.7% to 11.6%) and Nomar Garciaparra (from 5.5% to 1 8% which removes him from future ballots)

The voters are still largely negative with regards to players associated with Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs). Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds each picked up about 7.5% but are mired in the mid 40% range.

There was a significant change in the voting population in the 2016 election. Writers who have been inactive professionally for 10 years are no longer eligible to vote, reducing the total number of ballots cast from 549 in 2015 to 440 in 2016..   Thus, some players on the ballot who received a higher percentage of votes actually received fewer total votes.

Following is a list of candidates that received votes in the election this year. For the holdovers, vote totals for last year are also shown.

Player Ballot Years 2016 Votes 2016 % 2015 VOTES 2015 % Vote Differ 2016 Vote Differ %
Ken Griffey 1 437 99.3
M Piazza 4 365 83.0 384 69.9 -19 13.1
Jeff Bagwell 6 315 71.6 306 71.6 9 15.9
Tim Raines 9 397 69.8 302 55.0 5 14.8
T Hoffman 1 296 67.3
C Schilling 4 230 52.3 215 39.2 15 13.1
R Clemens 4 199 45.2 206 37.5 -7 7.7
B Bonds 4 195 44.3 202 36.8 -7 7.5
E Martinez 7 191 43.4 148 27.0 43 16.4
M Mussina 3 189 43.0 135 24.6 54 18.4
ATrammell 15 180 40.9 138 25.1 42 15.8
Lee Smith 14 150 34.1 166 30.2 -16 3.9
F McGriff 7 92 20.9 71 12.9 21 8.0
Jeff Kent 3 73 16.6 77 14.0 – 4 2.6
L Walker 6 68 15.5 65 11.8 3 3.7
M McGwire 10 54 12.3 55 10.0 -1 2.3
G Sheffield 2 51 11.6 64 11.7 -13 – 0.1
B Wagner 1 46 10.5
S Sosa 3 31 7.0 36 6.6 -5 0.4
J Edmonds 1 11 2.5
Garciaparra 2 8 1.8 30 5.5 -22 -3.7
M Sweeney 1 3 0.7
D Eckstein 1 2 0.5
J Kendall 1 2 0.5
GAnderson 1 1 0.2

 

In addition to Griffey, two other ballot newcomers received enough votes to remain on the ballot. Both were closers, Trevor Hoffman (67.3%) and Billy Wagner (+10.5%). Hoffman’s high vote total in his first year on the ballot suggests that he should get elected fairly quick[y. In something of a surprise, Jim Edmonds fell off the ballot in his first year with only 2.5% of the votes. In addition to Trammell and Garciaparra, Mark McGwire will also be removed from future ballots since he has completed ten years without being elected.

The following seven players were on the ballot but did not receive any votes: Brad Ausmus, Luis Castillo, Troy Glaus, Mark Grudzielanek, Mike Hampton, Mike Lowell and Randy Winn.

For the third straight year, the writers averaged over eight votes on their ballots versus the historical average of 6 -7. If this continues, the problem of an overcrowded ballot should gradually be relieved. The change that reduced a player’s time on the ballot from 15 to 10 years will also help. The 2017 class of ballot newcomers, headlined by Vladimir Guerrero, Ivan Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez, is not as strong as some recent classes which should help ballot holdovers. Schilling and Mussina should move up since no other starting pitchers with serious Hall of Fame credentials are likely to be on the ballot

Bill Gilbert

1/12/2016

____________________

eagle-0range

Tags:, ,
Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a Comment »

Bill Gilbert Analyzes 2015 HOF Vote

January 17, 2015
Bill Gilbert is a veteran member of SABR, a respected and exceptional baseball data analyst, and a free lance reporter for The Pecan Park Eagle.

Bill Gilbert is a veteran member of SABR, a respected and exceptional baseball data analyst, and a free lance reporter for The Pecan Park Eagle.

 

Analyzing the 2015 Hall of Fame Vote

 By Bill Gilbert

 

The Baseball Writers Association of America elected 4 players to the Hall of Fame this year for the first time since 1955, Randy Johnson (97.3%), Pedro Martinez (91.3%), John Smoltz (82.9%) and Craig Biggio (82.7%). All four easily surpassed the 75% required for election.

Of those on the ballot who were not elected, Mike Piazza came the closest with 69.9%, putting him in position for likely election next year. Twelve of the seventeen holdover candidates received more votes this year than last led by Curt Schilling (48 votes), Tim Raines (39 votes), Piazza (29 votes) and Biggio (27 votes).

Jeff Bagwell, who finished 6th in the balloting at 55.7%, had a disappointing showing, receiving 4 fewer votes than last year. He needs a strong move next year to get back on track. Others who received fewer votes in 2015 than 2014 were Jeff Kent (-10 votes), Mark McGwire (-8 votes), Sammy Sosa (-5 votes) and Lee Smith (-5 votes). Support for McGwire and Smith continues to decline and they are running out of time on the ballot. Smith’s final year is 2015 and McGwire’s is 2016 and neither are close to election. Sosa, with only 6.6% of the vote is in danger of dropping below 5.0% next year which would remove him from future ballots. Don Mattingly, in his final year on the ballot, picked up only 3 more votes to 9.1% and will drop off the ballot.

The voters are still largely negative with regards to players associated with Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs). Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds each picked up only 4 additional votes and are mired in the mid 30% range. It appears that voters have not changed their minds on PEDs with roughly one third supporting them and two thirds choosing not to vote for them, at least for now.

Following is a list of candidates that received votes in the election this year. For the holdovers, vote totals for last year are also shown.

 

PLAYER YEARS ON BALLOT 2014 VOTES 2014 % 2015 VOTES 2015 % 14-15 VOTE #DIFFER 14-15 VOTE %DIFFER
RandyJohnson 1 534 97.3
PedroMartinez 1 500 91.1
John Smoltz 1 455 82.9
Craig Biggio 3 427 74.8 454 82.7 27 7.9
Mike Piazza 3 355 62.2 384 69.9 29 7.7
Jeff Bagwell 5 310 54.3 306 55.7 – 4 1.4
Tim Raines 8 263 46.1 302 55.0 39 8.9
Curt Schilling 3 167 29.2 215 39.2 48 10.0
RogerClemens 3 202 35.4 206 37.5 4 2.1
Barry Bonds 3 198 34.7 202 36.8 4 2.1
Lee Smith 13 171 29.9 166 30.2 – 5 – 0.3
Ed Martinez 6 144 25.2 148 27.0 4 1.8
Alan Trammell 14 119 20.8 138 25.1 19 4.3
Mike Mussina 2 116 20.3 135 24.6 19 4.3
Jeff Kent 2 87 15.2 77 14.0 – 10 – 1.2
Fred McGriff 6 67 11.7 71 12.9 4 1.2
Larry Walker 5 53 10.2 65 11.8 12 1.6
GaryScheffield 1 64 11.7
Mark McGwire 9 63 11.0 55 10.0 – 8 – 1.0
Don Mattingly 15 47 8.2 50 9.1 3 0.9
Sammy Sosa 3 41 7.2 36 6.6 – 5 – 0.6
NGarciaparra 1     30 5.5
———- ——- —— —– —– —– —– —–
CarlosDelgado 21 3.8
Troy Percival 4 0.7
Aaron Boone 2 0.4
Tom Gordon 2 0.4
Darin Erstad 1 0.2

 

In addition to the three ballot newcomers who were elected, two others received enough votes to remain on the ballot, Gary Sheffield and Nomar Garciaparra, although Nomar barely made it with 5.5%. In something of a surprise, Carlos Delgado, with 10 straight 30 home run seasons, fell off the ballot in his first year.

The following seven players were on the ballot but did not receive any votes: Rich Aurilia, Tony Clark, Jermaine Dye, Cliff Floyd, Brian Giles, Eddie Guardado and Jason Schmidt.

One encouraging aspect this year is the continued increase in the average number of votes per ballot. In 2013, 569 writers voted for an average of 6.6 candidates. In 2014, 571 writers voted for an average of 8.4 candidates. This year, only 549 ballots were turned in but they continued to average 8.4 votes per ballot. If this continues, the problem of an overcrowded ballot should gradually be relieved. The change that reduces the time on the ballot from 15 to 10 years will also help. The 2016 class of ballot newcomers headlined by Ken Griffey, Jr., Trevor Hoffman, Billy Wagner and Jim Edmunds is not as strong as the last two. Griffey will make it in his first year but the others are not likely to generate much first ballot support. This should improve the chances of ballot holdovers like Piazza, Bagwell and Raines and especially Schilling and Mike Mussina with other starting pitchers out of the way. It will be a critical year for Bagwell who appears to be stuck in the 55% range.

 

Bill Gilbert

1/15/2015

 

 

 

Tags:,
Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a Comment »

Bill Gilbert: Where Have All The Hitters Gone?

July 4, 2014
Have a Safe and Happy Independence Day!

Have a Safe and Happy Independence Day!

Happy 4th of July, Everyone! Today The Pecan Park Eagle is pleased to present  a second consecutive column by Bill Gilbert of the SABR Austin Chapter named for Rogers Hornsby. on how the triple milestone competition among batters and pitchers in MLB looks at mid-season. What an appropriate day it is to examine this material. On a day generally given over to celebration by fireworks, Bill Gilbert looks at the big leagues and invites the rest of us to join him in wondering: Where have all the fireworks gone?

Thanks, Bill for another fine job of analysis and clear writing.

 

Bill Gilbert is a vetrean member of SABR and a regular contributing writer for The Pecan Park Eagle,

Bill Gilbert is a vetrean member of SABR and a regular contributing writer for The Pecan Park Eagle,

Where Have All the Hitters Gone?

 By Bill Gilbert

With major league teams reaching the season’s mid-point by playing are on target for the triple milestones of a .300 batting average, 30 home runs and 100 RBIs and pitchers on target for 20 wins, 200 strikeouts and an ERA below 3.00.

Times have changed. In 2000, 26 hitters achieved all three triple milestones but no pitchers achieved all three of their milestones. Last year only three hitters and one pitcher (Max Scherzer) reached all three. Similar numbers are being recorded at mid-season in 2014 with 3 hitters and 2 pitchers on target.

 

Table 1: HITTERS IN LINE TO GET 3X MILESTONE IN 2014

1ST TIME TRIPLE MILESTONERS BA HR RBI
VICTOR MARTINEZ .328 20 52
MIKE TROUT .313 `8 59
GIANCARLO STANTON .312 21 59

 

TABLE 2: OTHER HITTERS CLOSE TO 3X MILESTONE NOW

CLOSE TO 3Milestones BA HR RBI NEEDS
TROY TULOWITZKI .351 18 45 MORE RBI
MIGUEL CABRERA .321 13 64 GOING FOR 8; HR
JOSE BATISTA .305 15 49 SHOULD MAKE IT
ADAM JONES .302 14 47 STRONG 2ND HALF
PAUL GOLDSCHMIDT .299 15 53 Made it last year
NELSON CRUZ .289 25 66 BOOST BA

 

TABLE 3: PITCHERS IN LINE FOR 3X MILESTONE IN 2014

3X MILESTONE PITCHERS W K ERA COMMENT
MASAHIRO TANAKA 11 119 2.11 ROOKIE
ADAM WAINWRIGHT 10 105 2.01 CLOSE IN 2013

 

TABLE 4: OTHER PITCHERS WHO ARE CLOSE, BUT NEED W’S

CLOSE = NO CIGAR W K ERA COMMENT
FELIX HERNANDEZ 9 128 2.24 NEVER WON 20
ZACK GREINKE 9 101 2.89 GOING FOR 1ST
MADISON BUMGARNER 9 114 2.90 ANOTHER 1ST TIMER
CLAYTON KERSHAW 8 94 2.24 DID IT IN 2012
JOHNNY CUETO 8 122 1.88 CAREER YEAR
YU DARVISH 7 118 2.62 20 WINS A REACH
JULIO TEHERAN 7 103 2.34 ACE OF BRAVES

 

The most difficult targets to hit are the .300 batting average for hitters and 20 wins for pitchers. There are reasons for both. Hitters are now generally more inclined to go for power rather than average which results in more strikeouts and lower batting averages. Most analysts would agree that we are in a strong pitching era. However, pitcher’s wins are frequently not necessarily controllable by the starting pitcher, especially if he pitches only 6 or 7 innings, which is now frequently the case.

 

Bill Gilbert

bgilbert35@yahoo.com

7/4/14

 

Hope your 2014 4th of July weekend is healthy and happy, peaceful, and free.

Hope your 2014 4th of July weekend is healthy and happy, peaceful, and free.

Tags:,
Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »

Bill Gilbert: Analyzing the 2014 HOF Vote

January 17, 2014
Bill Gilbert is a vetran member of SABR and a regular contributing writer for The Pecan Park Eagle,

Bill Gilbert is a veteran member of SABR and a regular contributing writer at The Pecan Park Eagle,

Analyzing the 2014 Hall of Fame Vote

By Bill Gilbert

The Baseball Writers Association of America elected 3 players to the Hall of Fame this year, Greg Maddux (97.2%), Tom Glavine (91.9%) and Frank Thomas (83.7%). It was the largest class since 1999 when Nolan Ryan, George Brett and Robin Yount were elected. In addition, a veterans committee earlier elected managers, Bobby Cox, Tony Larussa and Joe Torre. Thus, induction weekend in July will feature six inductees, all of them still living. Last year there were only three inductees, all long deceased, elected by a veterans committee.

Craig Biggio received 74.8% of the vote, falling 2 votes short of the 75.0% required for election. He should make it easily next year, even with another strong incoming class. Biggio and Mike Piazza were the only 2 ballot holdovers that received more votes this year than last. The other 15 holdovers received fewer votes and some suffered significant declines. Jack Morris fell from 67.7% to 61.5% in his 15th and final year on the ballot. Rafael Palmeiro fell from 8.8% to 4.4%, below the 5.0% required to remain on the ballot. Four players recorded double-digit percentage declines – Lee Smith (-17.9%), Alan Trammel (-12.8%), Larry Walker (-11.4%) and Edgar Martinez (-10.7%). All will remain on the ballot but their chances for future election by the writers are highly unlikely.

Three players who many analysts believe should be in the Hall suffered surprising declines and will have some catching up to do. Jeff Bagwell fell from 59.6% to 54.3%, Tim Raines from 52.2% to 46.1% and Curt Schilling from 38.8% to 29.2%.

The voters are still largely negative with regards to players associated with Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs). Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds lost ground in their second year on the ballot and vote totals continued to decline for Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa and Palmeiro.

One encouraging aspect this year was the increase in the average number of votes per ballot. Last year 569 writers voted for an average of 6.6 candidates. This year 571 writers voted for an average of 8.4 candidates. This will have to continue with a ballot that is getting overcrowded. The ballot next year is another strong one with candidates like Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz and Gary Sheffield.

Five ballot newcomers received enough votes to remain on the ballot, the three who were elected plus Mike Mussina, (20.3%) and Jeff Kent (15.2%).

Following is a list of candidates that received votes in the election this year. For the holdovers, vote totals for last year are also shown.

Players Ballot Years 2014 Votes 2014 % 2013 Votes 2013 % Vote Diff. Vote % Diff
Greg Maddux 1 555 97.2        
Tom Glavine 1 525 91.9        
Frank Thomas 1 478 83.7        
Craig Biggio 2 427 74.8 388 68.2 +39 +6.6
Mike Piazza 2 355 62.2 329 57.8 +26 *4.4
Jack Morris 15 351 61.5 385 67.7 -34 -6.2
Jeff Bagwell 4 310 54.3 339 59.6 -29 -5.3
Tim Raines 7 263 46.1 297 52.2 -34 -6.1
Roger Clemens 2 202 35.4 214 37.6 -12 -2.2
Barry Bonds 2 198 34.7 206 36.2 -8 -1.5
Lee Smith 12 171 29.9 272 47.8 -101 -17.9
Curt Schilling 2 167 29.2 221 38.8 -54 -9.6
Edgar Martinez 5 144 25.2 204 35.9 -60 -10.7
Alan Trammell 13 119 20.8 191 33.6 -28 -12.8
Mike Mussina 1 116 20.3        
Jeff     Kent 1 87 15.2        
Fred McGriff 5 67 11.7 118 20.7 -51 -9.0
Mark McGwire8 8 63 11.0 96 16.9 -33 -5.9
Larry Walker 4 58 10.2 123 21.6 -65 -11.4
Don  Mattingly 5 47 8.2 75 13.2 -28 -5.0
Sammy Sosa 2 41 7.2 71 12.5 -30 -5.3
Missed Req. 5% All Below Now Out Of  New BBWAA Votes and Moved to Vet Com View
Rafael Palmeiro 4 25 4.4 50 8.8 -25 -4.4
Moises Alou 1 6 1.1        
Hideo Nomo 1 6 1.1        
Luis Gonzalez 1 5 0.9        
Eric Gagne 1 2 0.4        
J.T.    Snow 1 2 0.4        
Armando Beniquez 1 1 0.2        
Jacque Jones 1 1 0.2        

The following six players were on the ballot but did not receive any votes: Sean Casey, Ray Durham, Todd Jones, Paul LoDuca, Richie Sexson and Mike Timlin.

The continued overcrowding of the ballot has prompted some complaints and suggestions for changing the voting procedure. The Hall of Fame is responsible for determining how the voting should be conducted. The Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) has been selected as the voting group since the beginning. Writers must be members of the BBWAA for 10 years before they can vote. One suggestion that is being actively discussed between the writers and the Hall is that writers can be allowed to vote for more than 10 players. Other ideas have been put forth such as expanding the voting population to include internet baseball writers and analysts, trimming the ranks of voters who no longer write actively, reducing the number of years that players remain on the ballot and reducing the time (from 10 years) that writers must wait before they can vote.

None of these changes are expected to be made in the near future. The overcrowding problem may eventually take care of itself if writers continue to vote for eight or more players each year.

Bill Gilbert
1/16/2014

Tags:,
Posted in Uncategorized | 3 Comments »