Posts Tagged ‘A Bill Gilbert Report’

Bill Gilbert: Seventy Three Days and Counting

July 3, 2015
Veteran SABR researcher and distinguished guest columnist for The Pecan Park Eagle offers his June Results Report on the 2015 Houston Astros

Veteran SABR researcher and distinguished guest columnist for The Pecan Park Eagle offers his June Results Report on the 2015 Houston Astros

Seventy Three Days and Counting

By Bill Gilbert

On April 19, the Houston Astros defeated the Los Angeles Angels, 4-3 and moved into first place in the American League West Division. Seventy three days later, they are still there. At one point in May, they led the division by 7 games and finished the month 5 games ahead. They encountered some rough spots in June including a 7–game losing streak, some injuries and a few bullpen blowups, but they still finished the month ahead by 4 games with a record of 46-34. They were 15-14 in June, their third straight winning month.

The Astros success in 2015 has been due to a number of factors. They are playing consistently well in most facets of the game, hitting, pitching and defense. While the team batting average (.240) and on-base percentage (.308) rank near the bottom, their slugging average (.426) ranks near the top of all major league teams. They were the first team in the major leagues to reach 100 home runs and are currently on top with 113. They rank third in the majors and first in the American League in stolen bases with 61 and have scored an average of 4.45 runs per game, ranking sixth in the majors. However, they lead the majors in striking out with 742 which has them on a pace for 1502, slightly less than the major league record of 1535 which the Astros set in the forgettable 2013 season.

Pitching has been surprisingly strong all season. They have allowed 3.73 runs per game and the team ERA is 3.50, ranking 8th in the majors and third in the American League. The bullpen wavered a little in June but the relief pitchers have an ERA of 2.56 for the season, ranking 4th in the majors and behind only Kansas City in the American League. Astro pitchers have allowed only 1.17 walks and hits per inning pitched (WHIP), the best figure in the majors.

The back end of the starting rotation has been a potential problem area but received a shot in the arm with the performance of rookie Lance McCullers who recorded an ERA of 2.11 in his six starts in June. Fellow rookie, Vince Velasquez also showed promise, recording a 3.72 ERA in his four June starts.

Offense in June was up, largely due to the eagerly anticipated arrival of the beginning of the Carlos Correa era. Correa, the number one pick in the 2012 draft, considered by most to be the top prospect in baseball, earned his promotion to the majors with outstanding production in two minor league stops to begin the season. In his first month with the Astros, he batted .287 with 5 home runs, 15 RBIs and 4 stolen bases. On three occasions, he needed only a triple to hit for the cycle.

George Springer had a strong month, batting .321 with 6 home runs. Backup catcher, Hank Conger, also had a strong month batting .310. Luis Valbuena and Chris Carter provided power with 9 and 6 home runs respectively, but both remain below the Mendoza Line at .199 and .197. Jose Altuve slumped early in the month but finished strong on a 9 game hitting streak.

The Astros minor league teams continue to do well. All four of the full season teams have winning records and three are in first place in their divisions. Several prospects have been promoted to higher levels including 2013 No. 1 pick, Mark Appel. However, Appel was hit hard in his first start at AAA Fresno. There was hope that he would be able to help at the major league level this year but his inconsistency now makes it unlikely.

The Astros faced a tough schedule the last two weeks of June with an 8-game road trip west followed by home series against the Yankees and Royals. They split the road trip 4-4 thanks to the luxury of facing the Colorado Rockies batting practice pitchers for two games and also split the Yankee series 2-2. They finished the month with 2 wins against Kansas City.

The going doesn’t get any easier. The Astros began the month of July by finishing the 3-game sweep of Kansas City before leaving on another road trip which takes them to the All-Star break. They will not have another home game until July 17. Unfortunately, they may be without Springer who was hit in the wrist by a pitch in the final game of the Royals series.

Bill Gilbert

billcgilbert@sbcglobal.net

7/2/15

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Bill Gilbert: Houston Astros in 2015?

April 5, 2015
Bill Gilbert is a veteran member of SABR, a respected and exceptional baseball data analyst, and a free lance reporter for The Pecan Park Eagle.

Bill Gilbert is a veteran member of SABR, a respected and exceptional baseball data analyst, and a free lance reporter for The Pecan Park Eagle. Today, Bill provides us with his view on how things appear to shake out for the Houston Astros in the 2015 AL Season.

What’s in Store for the Houston Astros in 2015?

By Bill Gilbert

  Expectations for the Astros in 2015 are higher than they have been in several years.  In 2014, the Astros broke a 3-year streak of last place finishes with over 100 losses by recording a 19 game improvement, finishing with a record of 70-92.  Not great but a clear step in the right direction, especially since they finally finished ahead of the Texas Rangers.  This, together with the emergence of Jose Altuve as a star and the anticipated breakout season from George Springer, has led to greater optimism in 2015, which is warranted, but some problems remain.
                While the Astros were below the major league average in virtually every category in 2014, the biggest deficiency was the bullpen.  This problem was addressed with the signing of free agent pitchers, Luke Gregerson, Pat Neshek and Joe Thatcher, who should provide a big improvement in relief pitching.  A similar move that was made last year didn’t work out when veteran relievers, Matt Albers and Jesse Crain were signed but both missed essentially the whole season with injuries.
                Astro starting pitching was essentially league average in 2014, due to breakout seasons by Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh.  However, the rest of the rotation was inconsistent.  The Astros did not do anything significant to strengthen the rotation in the off season and it may be unrealistic to expect Keuchel and McHugh to repeat their success in 2015 since neither has yet built a track record.  Two newcomers to the rotation are veteran journeyman, Roberto Hernandez who hasn’t had significant success since he was Fausto Carmona in 2007 and rookie Asher Wojciechowski who has not appeared in a major league game.  Some promising pitchers are in the pipeline but they are not likely to have an impact in 2015.  Lack of depth in starting pitching at the major league level could be the team’s major limitation.
                The Astros have an interesting offense.  They were fourth in the major leagues in home runs last year but were second in the majors in striking out, although at a lower level than their major league record of 1535 in 2013.  With the addition of Evan Gattis and Colby Rasmus and a full season from Springer, they should be in a good position to shatter the previous record despite the presence of one of the hardest players in the league to strike out in Altuve.
                The Astros should again be among the major league leaders in home runs but the key will be having men on base when they are hit.  The team’s low on-base percentage of .309 resulted in only 3.88 runs per game, below the major league average of 4.07.
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                Defensively, the Astros were slightly below average and should be about the same this year.  New additions, third baseman, Luis Valbuena, shortstop, Jed Lowrie and outfielders Evan Gattis and Colby Rasmus are not noted for their defense.
                Putting it all together, it is tempting to think the Astros could reach .500 for the first time since 2008 but they may not have enough starting pitching to get there.  A more realistic forecast might be 79-83, a 9 game improvement over last year. They should be able to maintain their position ahead of the Texas Rangers.
Bill Gilbert
4/4/2015
"I love taking all for my brightest hopes for our Houston Astros with we to Opening Day every year, but I'm not putting all my eggs into the 2015 season bucket. - In fact, I will settle for the sunny side up of .500 ball this year. - 82-80 seems about right. Is that asking for too much - or am I simply expecting too little?" ~ A SABR-Toothed Easter Bunny

“I love taking all of my brightest hopes for our Houston Astros with we to Opening Day every year, but I’m not putting all my eggs into the 2015 season basket. – In fact, I will settle for the sunny side up of .500 ball this year. – 82-80 seems about right to me. – Is that asking for too much – or am I simply expecting too little?”
~ A SABR-Toothed Easter Bunny

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Bill Gilbert: Astros Finish Worst Year in History

October 8, 2013

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Astros Finish Worst Year in Club History

By Bill Gilbert, 10/07/2013

The Astros finished the season with a 15-game losing streak, capping off the worst year in their 52-year history. The 51-111 record continues a streak of three straight years with the worst record in the team’s history and also the worst record in the major leagues.

Can it get any worse? Astro fans, or what’s left of them, are asking again as they did after the 2012 season, when it appeared that it was time for the rebuilding project to start showing some results. I expected some improvement in 2013 and I feel safe in forecasting some improvement in 2014. How can it possibly get worse than a 51-111 record culminating in a 15-game losing streak?

Almost anything that could go wrong for the Astros in 2013 did so. First was the forced move to the American League which was about as unpopular as Obamacare. The anticipated rivalry with the Texas Rangers turned out to be a dud as the Rangers won 17 of the 19 games between the two teams. The new TV deal with Comcast which was supposed to bring in a big increase in revenue failed when the Comcast network was unsuccessful in negotiations with major providers leaving viewers in Houston and other Texas cities unable to see Astro games. In view of the team’s performance, maybe that was a good thing.

The Astros were well below average in essentially all aspects of the game. They were last in the major leagues in on-base percentage (.299), slugging average (.375) and ahead of only the White Sox in the AL with an average of 3.77 runs per game. The pitchers ERA was 4.79, worst in the major leagues and the team’s fielding percentage of .979 was the lowest in the major leagues as they led the major leagues in errors.

The Astros set some other dubious records along the way. They set a major league record with 1535 strikeouts and led the major leagues by being caught stealing 61 times. Chris Carter led the majors in strikeouts with 212.

Jose Altuve had another productive year, batting .283 with 35 stolen bases. Jason Castro led the team with an on-base percentage of .350 and a slugging average of .485. Carter led in home runs with 29, RBIs with 82 and walks with 70. Jordan Lyles led the pitchers in wins with only 7. Jared Cosart had a 1.95 ERA in his 10 starts after being promoted to the major leagues but he walked more batters than he struck out.

Houston minor league teams had an excellent year in 2013. Their six top minor league teams all made the post-season playoffs and two of them, Low Class A Quad-Cities and Short-Season, Tri-Cities, won league championships. While the farm system has been greatly fortified by good draft picks and trades, it hasn’t yet produced a significant number of players at the major league level that appear to have the potential to be solid major leaguers. The Astros used 25 position players and 25 pitchers at the major league level this year but only Altuve and Castro have established themselves as being the type of players that could be productive on a contending team. Third baseman Matt Dominguez is strong defensively and has some power but doesn’t hit for average. Carter has power but has pitch recognition problems resulting in strikeouts and a low batting average. Center fielder George Springer had an outstanding season split between AA Corpus Christi and AAA Oklahoma City batting .303 with 37 home runs and 45 stolen bases and should be in Houston in 2014.

Of the pitchers, Cosart and Brett Oberholtzer showed promise after being promoted late in the season and Jordan Lyles remains as a prospect. There are some promising pitchers in the minors but they are mostly a couple of years away. The big concern is that there may not be enough high-ceiling players in the system to field a contending team in the next few years.

I expected some improvement in 2013 with at least 60 wins but it didn’t happen. Part of that was due to the move to the American League where the team was even more overmatched than they were in the National League. However, some improvement must be shown in 2014 to begin recovering the dwindling fan base. A minimum of 63 wins in 2014 should be attainable to stop the string of 100-loss seasons followed by 70 wins in 2015.

Pecan Park Eagle Footnote: Bill Gilbert was a long-time Houston area resident during his years of employment at Exxon and a stabilizing leader of the Larry Dierker Chapter of SABR (The Society for American Baseball Research) during its early years in southeast Texas. Now retired in the Austin area, Bill remains active with the Rogers Hornsby Chapter of SABR, where he continues his “passionate dispassionate” ongoing evaluation of Houston Astros baseball. Thank you, Bill Gilbert, for making your assessments available to an even larger base of fans through the readership of The Pecan Park Eagle. God Willing in favor of us all, we shall look forward again to both your monthly Astros evaluation contributions in 2014 – and to whatever else you care to write for us, anytime, along this joyful baseball  way.

Bill Gilbert may be reached at billcgilbert@sbcglobal.net

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Triple Milestone Targets-2013

September 4, 2013

Bill Gilbert Astro2

 

Triple Milestone Targets – 2013

By Bill Gilbert

9/3/2013           billcgilbert@sbcglobal.net
 Here is a look at who is on target for the milestones of a .300 batting average, 30 home runs and 100 RBIs with 4 weeks to go.
Triple Milestone Targets-2013
With four weeks to go, only two players are on target for triple milestones of a .300 batting average, 30 home runs and 100 RBIs but six others are close.  Only one pitcher is on target for the milestones of 20 wins, 200 strikeouts and an ERA less than 3.00.  No other pitchers are close.
At this point in the season, a batter must have a batting average of .300, 25 home runs and 85 RBIs to be on target.  To be considered close, he must have a batting average of .290, 23 home runs and 80 RBIs.
A pitcher must have 17 wins, 169 strikeouts and an ERA of less than 3.00 to be on target.  To be considered close, he must have 16 wins, 159 strikeouts and an ERA of less than 3.15.
Here are the players who are on target or close:
HITTERS               BA-HR-RBI
Miguel Cabrera  .358-47-122.  Has it made with room to spare.
Robinson Cano  .305- 25- 89.  On target but needs home runs and RBIs.
Chris Davis  .298-47-122.  Needs a couple of points on batting average.
Paul Goldschmidt .295-31-104. Close, but short on batting average.
Adrian Beltre  .327-28-82.  A little short on RBIs.
Adam Jones  .293-28-98. Close and coming on strong.
David Ortiz  .312-24-85.  Close but needs home runs.
Mike Trout  .335-23-82.  Close but needs home runs and RBIs.
PITCHERS            W-L, Strikeouts, ERA
Max Scherzer  19-1, 201, 2.90.  On target but ERA could be a problem.
No other pitchers have more than 15 wins.  Since pitchers wins are not controllable, it’s interesting to look at which pitchers are on target on both strikeouts and ERA but not wins..
PITCHER             W-L ERA-Strikeouts
Yu Darvish           12-6, 2.73, 236
Clayton Kershaw  14-8, 1.89, 231
Felix Hernandez   12-9, 3.01, 200
Chris Sale            10-12, 2.99, 193
Matt Harvey            9-5, 2.27, 191
Adam Wainwright  15-9, 3.14, 187
Steven Strasburg    6-9, 2.85, 174
Jose Fernandez    10-6, 2.33, 173

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Bill Gilbert: Mid-Season Stat Pacers

July 4, 2013

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Mid-Season Stat Pacers

By

Bill Gilbert

          With most teams reaching the season mid-point by playing their 81st game of theseason last weekend, its time to take a look at players that are on target for the triple milestones of a .300 batting average, 30 home runs and 100 RBIs and pitchers on target for 20 wins, 200 strikeouts and an ERA below 3.00.
          There weren’t as many as I expected.  Five position players and only one pitcher are on-target.
          Hitters
Chris Davis (Baltimore Orioles) (.332-31-80) – Breakout season.
Miguel Cabrera (Detroit Tigers) (.369-25-82) – Going for his 7th.
Paul Goldschmidt (Arizona D’backs) (.303-20-69) – Did it in minors.
Carlos Beltran (St. Louis Cardinals) (.308-19-50) – Hasn’t done it before.
David Ortiz (Boston Red Sox) (.317-16-57) – Last did it in 2007.
          Pitcher
Adam Wainwright (St. Louis Cardinals) (11-5, 114K, 2.22 ERA).

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