The Pecan Park Eagle

Astros 2011: Who's on First?

Count me among those fans who are happy that the Astros have now put a public face on their plans to rebuild the farm system as the primary talent source for the major league roster. I supported the old skin-shedding of Oswalt and Berkman from the 2010 roster and the decision to go with younger faces at all key roster spots, wherever possible. I applaud Tal Smith and Ed Wade for their re-thinking and re-tooling of the club’s scouting and player development staff – and I like what I’ve seen of the younger players coming in as prospects.

The only black cloud I see is just one of those things that can’t be helped in today’s game, but it deserves comment. Just as Michael Bourn was developing as the icon of our Astros youth or Phoenix bird player redevelopment, he turns around and signs up Scott Boras as his agent. Now the question is: Can we really afford for Bourn to have the career year we need him to have in 2011? If he does, it may simply give agent Boras the opportunity next year to make the Astros an offer on the future of Bourn that they will choose to refuse. What a conundrum!

I don’t see a lot of surprises developing as the Astros cull down to their 25-man roster by opening day. Were it not for our two DL infielders and the two Rule 5 Draft pick pitchers that the Astros are likely to keep, picking it now would be even easier. Given no claims of visionary power or inside knowledge, here’s how I seeing it settle out. Things could change if Brett Wallace squats and doesn’t hit from spring game one, but that would probably just means that Wallace goes down to Oklahoma City while Lee moves to first and Bogusevic takes over in left.

Keppinger and Sanchez will not be fully ready to go on Opening Day, but they should both be back full-bore by late May. I don’t see Tommy “Fair Field/No Hit” Manzella sticking with the club unless Clint Barnes really sucks wind in the spring, nor do I see much future in the infield here for Mr. Downs. I also don’t see any big surprises in the pitching roster from the start, unless we suddenly find Captain Marvel hiding out there in rookie garb.

I look forward to another great year from Billy-Goat-Bearded Brett Myers as we also hope again that this is finally the season that Wandy Rodriguez loses his “Mr. Hyde” alter ego, once and for all.

Nothing original from me on what’s needed this spring: (1) Castro and Wallace have to start showing they can hit MLB pitching; (2) Chris Johnson at third needs to show he can do it again as a hitter; (3) Lee, Bourn, and Pence just need to be the players they already are; and (4) Hall and Barnes need to show us that Ed Wade’s confidence in them is justified as adequate keystone base figures with compensating extra power pop at the plate; and (5) the pitchers need to get their arms in shape and their stuff working without getting hurt before Opening Day.

Here are my early final roster picks. We’ll see how far off I am when the real season starts:

2011 Houston Astros: 2011 Season Opening Day 25-Man Roster Predictions.

Pitchers

Starters

(1)        Brett Myers (BR/TR)

(2)        Wandy Rodriguez (BB/TL)

(3)        J.A. Happ (BL/TL)

(4)        Bud Norris (BR/TR)

(5)        Nelson Figueroa (BR/TR)

Relievers

(6)        Jeff Fulcino (BR/TR)

(7)        Wesley Wright (BR/TL)

(8)        Wilton Lopez (BR/TR)

(9)        Fernando Abad (BL/TL)

(10)    Brandon Lyon (BR/TR) Closer

Rule 5 Draft Pitchers

(11)   Aneury Rodriguez (BR/TR)

(12)   Lance Pendleton (BL/TR)

Catchers

(13)   Jason Castro (BL/TR)

(14)   Humberto Quintero (BR/TR)

Infielders

(15)   1B:  Brett Wallace (BL/TR)

(16)   2B:  Bill Hall (BR/TR)

(17)   3B:  Chris Johnson (BR/TR)

(18)   SS:   Clint Barnes (BR/TR)

(19)   Matt Downs (BR/TR)

(20)   Jimmy Paredes (BB/TR)

Disabled List *

Jeff Keppinger (BR/TR)

Angel Sanchez (BR/TR)

Outfielders

(21)   LF: Carlos Lee (BR/TR)

(22)    CF: Michael Bourn (BR/TR)

(23)   RF: Hunter Pence (BR/TR)

(24)   Brian Bogusevic (BL/TL)

(25)   Jason Michaels (BR/TR)

* As they are able, look for Keppinger and Sanchez to replace Downs and Paredes as the reserve infielders. All plans could change if the Astros decide not to carry either or both of their Rule 5 Draft pitchers (A. Rodriquez & L. Pendleton) on the major league roster for the entire 2011 season.