The Pecan Park Eagle

Who Were the Most Productive Offensive Players in 2013?

By Bill Gilbert

Numerous methods have been devised to measure offensive performance. The most common are batting average, on-base percentage and slugging average. Since none of these averages provides a complete picture by itself, a more comprehensive measure of offensive performance is useful. Such a measure would include the following elements:

1. The ability to get on base.

2. The ability to hit with power.

3. The ability to add value through baserunning.

The first two elements are measured by on-base percentage and slugging average. A measure of offensive performance, which encompasses both as well as baserunning achievements, is Bases per Plate Appearance (BPA). This measure accounts for the net bases accumulated by a player per plate appearance. It is calculated as follows:

BPA = (TB + BB + HB + SB – CS – GIDP) / (AB + BB + HB + SF)

Where: BPA = Bases per Plate Appearance

TB = Total Bases

BB = Bases on Balls

HB = Hit by Pitch

SB = Stolen Bases

CS = Caught Stealing

GIDP = Grounded into Double Plays

AB = At Bats

SF = Sacrifice Flies

The numerator accounts for all of the bases accumulated by a player, reduced by the number of times he is caught stealing or erases another runner by grounding into a double play. The denominator accounts for the plate appearances when the player is trying to generate bases for himself. Sacrifice hits are not included as plate appearances, since they represent the successful execution of the batter’s attempts to advance another runner.

Major league BPA for the past fifteen years are shown below along with the number of players with BPA over .550 and .600:

Year 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

BPA .479 .481 .468 .457 .461 .468 .456 .470 .463 .458 .461 .446 .442 .447 .440

.550 50 50 46 39 42 33 34 46 34 41 42 19 25 12 14

.600 29 30 26 17 15 18 13 14 15 11 16 7 7 5 3

Offensive production peaked in 2000 before declining in the early years of this century. BPA in the years 2010-2013 has been the lowest of any of the last 15 years. In the 1990s, there were 14 individual .700 BPA seasons. In the eight year period from 2000 to 2007, there were 18. The highest BPA in the 1990s was recorded by Mark McGwire in 1998 (.799). Barry Bonds shattered that with .907 in 2001, the highest figure ever recorded, topping Babe Ruth’s best two years (1920 and 1921). Bonds followed that with .869 in 2002, .818 in 2003 and .882 in 2004. There have not been any hitters with a BPA of .700 since 2007. The last player to make it was Alex Rodriguez (.702) in 2007. Surprisingly, Albert Pujols has not had a .700 BPA in his thirteen seasons.

 Player Team Year BPA

Barry Bonds San Francisco 2001 .907

Barry Bonds San Francisco 2004 .882

Barry Bonds San Francisco 2002 .869

Barry Bonds San Francisco 2003 .818

Sammy Sosa Chicago Cubs 2001 .758

Barry Bonds San Francisco 2000 .745

Jim Thome Cleveland 2002 .728

Manny Ramirez Cleveland 2000 .726

Todd Helton Colorado 2000 .720

Luis Gonzalez Arizona 2001 .713

Todd Helton Colorado 2001 .709

Carlos Delgado Toronto 2000 .707

Larry Walker Colorado 2001 .707

Jason Giambi Oakland 2000 .706

Travis Hafner Cleveland 2006 .703

Alex Rodriguez NY Yankees 2007 .702

Jason Giambi Oakland 2001 .700

Ryan Howard Philadelphia 2006 .700

The yearly leaders since 1992 are as follows:

1992 Bonds .734 1993 Bonds .740 1994 Bagwell .768

1995 Belle .692 1996 McGwire .765 1997 Walker .770

1998 McGwire .799 1999 McGwire .735 2000 Bonds .745

2001 Bonds .907 2002 Bonds .869 2003 Bonds .818

2004 Bonds .882 2005 D. Lee .699 2006 Hafner .703

2007 A. Rodriguez .702 2008 Pujols .685 2009 Pujols .696

2010 Bautista .671 2011 Bautista .681 2012 Trout .665

2013 C. Davis .670

The benchmark for an outstanding individual season is .600. Following is a list of only 3 players with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title and with a BPA of .600 in 2013. The list is topped by Chris Davis of Baltimore replacing Mike Trout who led in 2012.

Bases per Plate Appearance (BPA) of .600+ in 2013

————————————————-

No. of 2013 2012 .600+

Player BPA BPA LG Seasons Comments ____________

1. Chris Davis .670 .521 A 1 Breakout season with 53 home runs.

2. Miguel Cabrera .663 .604 A 5 AL MVP in 2012 and 2013.

3. Mike Trout .649 .665 A 2 Finished first in 2012.

Three other players had a BPA over .600 in 2012 but fell short in 2013.

No. of 2013 2012 .600+

Player BPA BPA LG Seasons Comments

1 Ryan Braun .514 .651 N 2 Will he return to 2012 form?

2 Edwin Encarnacion .572 .623 A 1 Another pretty good year.

3 Josh Hamilton .453 .602 A 2 Major disappointment.

Four players have a BPA over .600 for their careers:

2013 Career

Player Age BPA BPA Comments

————- — —- —- —————————

Mike Trout 21 .649 .638 Quick rise to the top.

Albert Pujols 33 .447 .622 Needs a big comeback in 2014.

Alex Rodriguez 37 .486 .609 Suspended for 2014.

Ryan Braun 29 .514 .605 Once bright career in jeopardy.

Another list of interest is of players with a BPA of over .600 in 2013 who did not have enough plate appearances (PA) to qualify for the batting title.

Player Age BPA PA Comments

————— — —- — —————————

Hanley Ramirez 29 .676 336 Would be on top with more playing time.

Carlos Gonzalez 27 .651 436 Held back by injuries.

Khris Davis 25 .627 153 Very productive after promotion.

Looking at the other end of the spectrum, fourteen players who earned enough

playing time to qualify for the batting title had a BPA less than .400 in 2013.

Player BPA Comments

—————– —- ——————————

Yunel Escobar .397 Also on this list last year.

Brandon Crawford .395 Under .400 every year.

David Freese .393 Has .441 BPA for career.

Ichiro Suzuki .392 Not much left.

Erick Aybar .391 Has .421 BPA for career.

Paul Konerko .390 Fell way off in 2013.

Jose Altuve .388 Not much pop.

Nick Markakis .380 Lowest outfielder on list.

Mike Moustakas .378 Regressed in 2013.

Zack Cozart .374 Has declined each year.

Starlin Castro .355 Steep decline in 2013.

Alcides Escobar .338 Worst offensive season in career.

Darwin Barney .317 On this list every year.

Adeiny Hechavarria .303 Needs more production to stay in majors.

Two players compiled a batting average over .300, an on-base average over .400, a slugging percentage over .500 and bases per plate appearance over .600 in 2013.

Player BAVG OBA SLG BPA OPS

Miguel Cabrera .348 .442 .636 .663 1.078

Mike Trout .323 .432 .557 .649 .988

Two players have these numbers for their careers. Both play for the Los Angeles Angels.

Player BAVG OBA SLG BPA OPS

Mike Trout .314 .404 .544 .638 .948

Albert Pujols .321 .410 .599 .622 1.008

Another means of measuring offensive performance is Bases per Out, also called Total Average. The top 10 players on both lists are shown below.

Bases per Plate

Appearance Bases per Out

1. Chris Davis .670 1. Miguel Cabrera 1.184

2. Miguel Cabrera .663 2. Mike Trout 1.143

3. Mike Trout .649 3. Chris Davis 1.078

4. Paul Goldschmidt .588 4. Joey Votto 1.012

5. David Ortiz .587 5. Jayson Worth .985

6. Jayson Worth .585 6. David Ortiz .984

7. Carlos Gomez .577 7. Paul Goldschmidt .978

8. Troy Tulowitski .574 8. Shin-Soo Choo .974

Andrew McCutchen .574 9. Troy Tulowitski .959

Shin-Soo Choo .574 10. Andrew McCutchen .950

Nine players appear on both lists but not in the same order. Carlos Gomez is on the first list and Joey Votto is on the second one. They are different type players. Gomez gets his production largely from extra base hits and stolen bases while Votto gets a lot of his from bases on balls which results in fewer outs.

Bill Gilbert

2/2/14